Chinese stocks are making a move, BABA stock bumps above the SMA 50 The trends are down, but I added BABA at 82.50 just prior to earnings on a pure bottom feed with no TA based reason to do so. It was just that I’d had enough of the ‘drubbing of China’ narrative and thought it might be time to give this former darling a … Continue reading Don’t sleep on China
Weibo stock rises while other Chinese stocks sink As word of crackdowns (from both China’s central planners and the US) on large Chinese companies intensifies and FXI drops… …one stock is going the other way. WB is +13% after being +40% at one point in pre-market. First there was news that it is being taken private, but then quickly followed a denial by the company. … Continue reading Weibo bucks China wipe out on rumor
China’s Politburo is not sitting idly by while Trump pushes them around. From the Nikkei Asian Review… Why China’s ‘dual circulation’ plan is bad news for everyone else Rebalancing in 2008 also relied on raising the contribution of domestic demand in China’s growth. It was coupled with the idea that driven by faster growth in domestic consumption, China’s long-standing current account surplus would give way … Continue reading It’s Not Just the U.S. Pulling Back From the Global Economy
Dow futures rise as China pledges to stimulate coronavirus-hit businesses China is again taking economic action as the market awaits the Fed Minutes this afternoon. The market has been mostly trending upward but has also been attuned to developments related to coronavirus and the potential for slowing global economic growth due to disruptions to trade and travel caused by COVID-1, the infectious disease that originated … Continue reading COVID-19, the Exogenous Event That Became an Economic Event
The Unstoppable Force Right now, the Coronavirus is not to be taken lightly. From initial coverup to its “relentless march outward”, it has been a thus far unstoppable force. As New Coronavirus Spread, China’s Old Habits Delayed Fight …a coronavirus that is now on a relentless march outward from Wuhan, throughout the country and across the globe, killing at least 304 people in China and … Continue reading Unstoppable Force (Coronavirus) vs. Immovable Object (Central Banks)
One week it is Trump tweeting, another it is India reflating, another it is the Fed talking about permissiveness on inflation, another it’s China stimulating… and so on. This time it’s that last thing, and it is serving to drive the China A-Shares and Large Caps up through the resistance we noted in NFTRH 582 a couple weeks ago, along with upside targets. Weekly charts… … Continue reading There Goes China…
The graphic shows you that the media have now, months later, caught up to the story. As we have been noting all year, Semi leads and Semi Equipment and Materials tend to lead Semi before economic cycles turn. Here are 3 charts, AMAT/SOX, ASML/SOX and CCMP/SOX all in leadership mode. A fundamental source of my constructive view of Semi last posted on October 21st. The … Continue reading Semi Sector Leads, Laggards Lag
Happy now? Well congratulations, if the reports are true Trump is now trying to take over free market forces with protectionism going steroidal. I hold BABA and so I am doubly irritated by this. But those investors emailing me to ease up on Trump because of all the good he’s done might just want to consider the bad he’s doing as well. Stock market hits … Continue reading To Trump Supporters Who Are Also Investors…
This is one of the most thoughtful, intense (in a mellow sort of way) and clear thinking experts out there. Though I’ve used him as a contrary indicator on rare occasion, I’ve greatly respected the guy since I first read his bio several years ago. I would like to have 1/10th of his knowledge and perspective about the global macro. Recommended… Subscribe to NFTRH Premium … Continue reading Ray Dalio on China
I am far from an expert on why the CNH/USD currency pair and gold had traveled so well together. But I do have eyes and can see that they have traveled together in the recent past. Another thing I can see is that CNH/USD traveled well with the Q1 2019 upturn in China/EM in nominal terms and in relation to the US. That’s not shown … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold, a Key Currency Pair and an Implication
Per NFTRH 552’s Commodities segment on Sunday: REMX is testing its December Low. Downtrend in force. Can bounce. Ha ha ha… of course it can bounce. All the way up to its 50 day moving average, within its downtrend. China’s Xi offers a potent trade reminder with visit to rare earths hub Man, machine, black box, robot, algo, casino patron and maybe even Ma & … Continue reading The Market We Have, REE Edition
Here are some charts from the NFTRH Global Market Internals segment, much of which is used to gauge the trends of global markets vs. the US (SPY/SPX). We also keep track of other global macro indicators in order to combine the relative trends of various markets with a global macro view. I am posting the segment here so as to have a little more time … Continue reading Global Market Internals
The headline says it all (click for the story)… This is fine because one of our major themes – assuming we do not go full blown counter-cyclical here in the US – is that pending the US dollar, global will out perform the US in 2019. Who’s of interest globally? Well yes, India. But also China/Asia, with a side of Emerging Markets. Russia too, quite … Continue reading US Stock Futures Climb on “Upbeat China Data”
Insert here the disclaimer that I don’t care for the man, I don’t like most of what he stands for, or his funny haircut. But also insert here that protecting America’s IP was a very important issue and while I think the trade Tariffs issue as a whole is filled with land mines that have not gone off yet (can we really know how it … Continue reading Credit to Trump in This Case
