Who’s Lying, Uncle Buck or Those Counter to It?

USD (UUP) is firm, as we all know. Deflation is coming, as we all (think) we know.

But certain global markets that have been pressured by the strong USD are not buying the USD breakout; at least not yet. They have been firm over the last week and in the cases of EM and Asia, are grappling with the 50 day moving averages.

Is this all a play on what the market thinks it knows about Chief Powell and near-term Fed policy? Or is something more fundamental shifting within the global macro? We should know by late December.

For reference, here is the NFTRH chart that correlates the World (ex-US) inversely with the US dollar.

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