The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work. Fed Finally Blinks Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike. … Continue reading A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold
When FEYE was added per the NFTRH Charts & Notes segment it was noted that it had broken out and then pulled back, but was worth watching (or something to that effect). The daily chart has seen the stock spike since finding support at the up sloped SMA 200. That spike has brought it back to breakout territory. The weekly chart shows the larger situation. … Continue reading NFTRH+; This Stock is Making a 2nd Attempt at a Long-term Breakout
The relationship between Consumer Discretionary (and its big Amazon component) and Consumer Staples is an indicator on risk tolerance vs. defensive behavior in the stock market. Much like we did with the Semi Equipment leadership (another of our many ‘internals’ indicators) failure a year ago, we used XLY/XLP as a gauge of worsening market behavior for the risk ‘on’ contingent. We used these XLY/XLP charts … Continue reading The Consumer Foretold the Correction
A man stared at the chart below and made an update for subscribers a little while ago. Now, being a man who stares at charts who wants to be something more than a man pretending that shapes and patterns on a single chart warrant the time of serious and busy people, the update included much more. It cross referenced some key sectors and tied in … Continue reading A Man Who Stares at Charts Sees H&S!
The theme for a bear case has been to take back the Trump rally in 2019, using SPX 2100-2200 as an example. Very simply, that would take SPX down to the massive support area that launched the Trump rally after the US election in late 2016. Now, consider that an H&S top could be taking place. With the over bearish sentiment that whipped up, the … Continue reading NFTRH; 3 Sectors That Have Already Taken Back the Trump Rally and a Juxtaposition w/ SPX (medium priority)
Investing.com has a market roundup for us this morning. It’s actually a somewhat helpful summary of yesterday’s events and ‘need to know’ stuff for today. Opening Bell: Futures Drop on Risk-Off Shift, Nasdaq Posts Death Cross But two things… Thing 1 Why does there always have to be a reason put forth by the financial media, every damn day about why the market goes … Continue reading The Men Who Stare at Charts: “Nasdaq Death Cross”!
We wondered in a post this morning whether USD or some anti-USD markets were off base as all items were firm. Answer: Uncle Buck had stepped off sides and afoul of the Powell rate jawbone. While not a bull by any means beyond the bounce situation, I am long the 3 items in the lower panels. I was already long ACXW and AAXJ, and added … Continue reading Who Was Lying?
You partying? Wayne? You? Well, after expecting a bounce for an annoyingly long while the fledgling thing we had going before Mr. Powell’s jawbone was finally rammed home today. A world full of endorphin releasing Waynes and Garths are in full sentiment relief mode. Perfect. But, this… There has definitely been some short-term over bearish sentiment buildup that needed to be addressed and so the … Continue reading Garth!
Click headline, get story… Translation? One more hike in December and then we stand down. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox. You can also keep up to date with … Continue reading And Here Ladies and Gentlemen, Comes the Jawbone!
The update about the Baltic Dry index (BDI) brought about a couple of responses from learned subscribers. Subscriber A noted that a lot of shipping activity is happening ahead of the next Tariff increase and that is an excellent point. Subscriber B noted that we are in a post-bubble contraction and (my words) inflation is not going to carry the day. Rather, he believes a … Continue reading NFTRH; Update to the Update
A low priority update on a short position I just took. The setup looked good enough to use as a chart study, if nothing else. I am not an accomplished short seller and cash continues to be the favored method of playing bearish markets, so there are your caveats. PYPL has had a sharp bounce back to the SMA 200, where I shorted it. I’ll … Continue reading NFTRH+; Short Setup on a High Profile US Stock
The simplest update we’ve ever had. An update on Nov. 26 talked about how Treasury yields are still set up bullish on the big picture and how inflation ain’t dead yet. A public post this morning talks about how global stocks have not buckled under to the strong USD (at least not yet). Now let’s also add to the mix the Baltic Dry Index which, … Continue reading NFTRH; One Simple Picture of Positive Divergence for Commodities & Global Markets (high priority)
USD (UUP) is firm, as we all know. Deflation is coming, as we all (think) we know. But certain global markets that have been pressured by the strong USD are not buying the USD breakout; at least not yet. They have been firm over the last week and in the cases of EM and Asia, are grappling with the 50 day moving averages. Is this … Continue reading Who’s Lying, Uncle Buck or Those Counter to It?
The market bounce scenario has been on my radar longer than has been convenient for my own investing/trading. But that’s the way corrections and reactions often go I guess. At first it was taking the form of a potential short-term Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, which would have theoretically targeted around the 3000 area on SPX. That would have obviously compromised the longer-term bear view. … Continue reading Why a Bounce?