We have not strolled down big picture lane for a while and some of what I see is pretty interesting. Some of it makes sense, some of it scares me. Oh and silver bugs and commodity bulls may want to avert their eyes. Yikes. Big pictures can be scary, and they can instigate greed as well. They need to be moderated by short-term views when trying to move forward functionally on a week to week basis.
US Stock Market
The US stock market is having some difficulties this year, but on the big picture this pig has bloated so handily that it barely registers on monthly charts. SPX is fading the lower fork tine and if this thing tips bearish the objective is to simply take back the Trump rally @ 2100 or so. No big deal.
Dow, ha ha ha… it’s so bearish out there!
NDX long-since left its then hysterical 2000 high in the dust. Now it’s a crash objective.
I remember feeling like a bit of a lunatic when I put those upside targets on SOX and RUT. Now they look like crash objectives.
Global Stock Markets
DAX never quite made it to the upper objective. Mr. Draghi, got any Bernanke-esque tricks up your sleeve?
EM is dropping back into the nose of its Triangle.
Nikkei remains in breakout mode.
TSX flopped its blue sky breakout and is megaphoning to market participants that a reversal could be in play. That’s what a Megaphone is say the men who stare at charts. The opposite of a Symmetrical Triangle, which is a continuation pattern… so say they.
I don’t see a lot of bearish here, on the big picture at least. What I do see is the possibility of China out performing the US in the coming years.
CRB index is turning down from long-term lateral resistance and a trend line. Not a good look folks.
Crude oil doinked the lower end of our 75-85 target and dropped like a stone after the pattern finally played out.
Since we first created this chart, Doctor Copper was below the thick red line, rose above it and turned it green and now, back below a big red ceiling. Do you hear that stock market? That’s your supposed roof, right?
The doctor’s roughneck industrial pals are in trouble as well, not having quite reached my long ago plotted target.
Agri has refused to drop to my buy area in the 240s.
Uranium holder is getting interestinger and interestinger. Now if only someone can give me a good fundamental read beyond u3o8 producer supply cuts.
CRB/SPX tells us that we are foolish to be worrying about cyclical inflationary growth.
When the red resistance bar was established as the gateway to a new bull market in gold we said it wasn’t gonna be easy. Well guess what, it isn’t.
Silver… aye aye aye… moving right along.
We had a post about the daily chart view of this mess earlier today. The monthly quiets it all down and says risk vs. reward on the big picture is good, assuming funda continue to come in. It also says “patience”.
SPX/Gold ratio, our estimable Amigo #1 has so far played to the script. Now please, this never was a stop sign. It was a target. If they croak gold and bull the stock market in 2019 it’s going to be a tough pill for we bugs to swallow. So it would be best for this ceiling to hold. But whatever comes, be ready for it.
US Dollar & Bonds
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Uncle Buck. The rally started from key long-term support and that legitimizes the prospect of a bull market in this foil to the various global inflation trades.
30yr yield still lurks above the limiter. Let’s not forget that.
10-2 yield curve continues to flatten, aside from a daily chart bounce its got going on now. If it resumes flattening risk ‘on’ could get new life for a while. If it steepens, get out of the pool. Oh and tune out the media crap about inversion. It doesn’t really mean anything. It’s arbitrary. Flattening or steepening are what mean something.
TIP/TLT shows that inflation expectations have risen modestly under the Trump reflation.
TIP/IEF as well.
Okay, that’s enough for now. Have a good night. I’ll try to clean up any typos tomorrow.
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