NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A technical snapshot of key ETF’s…

GLD has bounced from critical support (equiv. of gold 1180).  MACD triggered up is positive.

gld

GLD-SPY would be very important to any gold sector investment case.  This is really a macro fundamental chart as it is a gauge of confidence (in policy making and in the markets propped by policy making).  At this point, GLD-SPY is constructive to put in a bottom of some kind, but the downtrend would not change until the 50 and then 200 day moving averages are successfully dealt with.

gld.spy

SLV made a move to bounce but MACD has not triggered.  Bearish, can bounce.

slv

SLV-GLD got very over bought and is now very over sold.  This ratio would rise if an ‘inflation trade’ were to come about, taking pressure off asset markets.

slv.gld

GDX made a lower low and is at the December low (support).  Bearish, can bounce.

gdx

GDXJ made a lower low but is above support.  Can bounce but MACD shows no sign of it yet.

gdxj

DBC lost the equiv. of CCI 500 long-term support and now that is critical resistance.

dbc

DBB is rising to resistance.

dbb

DBA broke the downtrend channel.  Resistance is noted.

dba

USO continues to be very weak, support at 33.

uso

As an aside, here is what gold (GLD) is doing vs. oil (USO).  A rise in this ratio benefits gold mining fundamentals.

gld.uso

UNG is still in the going nowhere trend.

ung

URA continues to be very bearish.  It also continues to hold interest as a speculation on a would-be ‘inflation trade’.

ura

TLT continues strong against the deflationary backdrop.

tlt

TIP-TLT broke down from the channel.  A couple days of relative up volume for TIP vs. TLT bears watching.

tip.tlt

HYG-TLT continues to weaken, as does HYG-LQD.  These are negative indicators for the US stock market.

hyg.tlt

SPY says it was a bull trap and the activity since has confirmed resistance and dropped the price out of its uptrend channel.  The key is now the August low.  A hold there and it’s a typical bear trap.  A lower low there and a new bear trend – and bear trade – regime begins.

spy

QQQ may get down to some significant support testing after all.

qqq

SMH has key support at the August low.  Lose that and it’s the Long-term breakout test express.

smh

IWM is a downside leader and it is right at critical support.  It is critical because IWM/Russell 2000 are in very clear topping patterns by longer-term charts.

iwm

XLE, which was NFTRH+’d last weekend, is in the same status.  Key support is noted, below which would be the stop loss.

xle

EZU remains very bearish.

ezu

EWP remains very bearish.

ewp

FXI is in a bearish trend but bouncing.

fxi

EEM is in a bearish trend but bouncing.

eem

FXE is bouncing with 1st resistance being the lost long-term support level.

fxe

UUP has stalled, with 1st support being the long-term resistance breakout.

uup

FXY is bouncing in a short-term Reverse Symmetrical Triangle, which is often a reversal pattern.  Yen is getting some short covering.

fxy

Bottom Line

Precious Metals:  Bearish, but as per our preferred big picture macro theme, gold is out performing not only silver, but increasingly other commodities and stock markets on the short-term.  Not so ironically, silver would probably lead any counter trend bounces or rallies.

Commodities:  Bearish, but a few of them are bouncing with the Ag’s (DBA) and Industrial Metals (DBB) notable.

Stock Markets:  Bearish, with the US market finally joining the misery.  Global markets are increasingly damaged.  The US would also be damaged if indexes start to lose the August lows.

Currencies:  USD (UUP) is bullish but prone to pullback.  Euro is bouncing and so too is the Yen, which could experience a short covering rally as much of the rest of the asset world corrects.