A quick note to let you know that I will be out for the rest of the day. I wanted to communicate this because I tend to update during dynamic periods and I don’t want people interpreting the quiet as ‘nothing is actionable’ if for instance signs of a reversal were to manifest in the precious metals, or the stock market for that matter. For … Continue reading NFTRH; Brief Note
Yesterday we noted TLT (often risk OFF) was popping up from its flag. Today that is reversed. Today we see a massive risk ‘ON’ impulse throughout Wonderland, I mean the world. HYG (always risk ‘ON’) is up and out of its flag, but not strongly so. No conclusion; I just like to dig things up sometimes and let you consider them. Continue reading Bond Risk Profiles Flip Flop… Slightly
Is it me or is the 3X Gold Miner short fund DUST beginning to look a lot like the VIX did a couple weeks ago? I actually shorted the VIX during the bear hysterics (and promptly chickened out and took the profit way too soon). I wonder if there will come a time to be brave enough to short the gold miner VIX, AKA DUST? … Continue reading Dusting Up the VIX
It is now two alert subscribers in two days who have reminded me of the 2008 ‘Fear Gap’ situation that NFTRH has been managing since at least 2013 and maybe as far back as 2012. So here is the chart as of last night. Today’s events are ramming the gap and closing it. This does not mean gold bugs should run out and get long. … Continue reading Fear Gap Closing
Stock Market Let’s keep it simple. At the depths of the recent hysterical downside we noted that the forces pushing the market down were probably unsustainable largely due to hype (Semiconductor sector news with a side of Ebola). A bounce was likely. We also noted that the market had broken its up trends and established new down trends and to nullify this it would have … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Update
So I am not even 3 days into the separation of commentary and hard analysis, but I think that it is going to work much better than anticipated. Biiwii seems to think it will thrive now that it is free from the nuts and bolts that will be done here. A new semi-regular segment will be in highlighting (and sometimes commenting upon) market related news … Continue reading Biiwii Figuring it Out
Over in bond land where so many good market indicators live, we have a strange situation with the generally risk ‘OFF’ TLT (long-term Treasury) consolidating right along with the very risk ‘ON’ HYG (junk). But TLT is trying to make a little sneak out of its flag today. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and … Continue reading Mixed Message in Bonds
The October market decline started with the Semi’s (well, after the Small Caps, which had been diverging for months) and the bounce back has been furious. So now it is decision time for traders who would participate in this area. The bounce filled the over hyped downside gap and brought SOX back up to the 50 day moving average and a visual resistance zone. If … Continue reading NFTRH+; SOX
The Gold-Silver ratio and the US dollar are rising (GSR at new highs) and taking liquidity out of the market. This as the precious metals, sometimes the earliest of indicators on liquidity, get hammered. Continue reading 2 Horsemen Ride
Post FOMC The Fed has ended QE 3 as expected. Here is the big picture view that has seen a post-2008 constant in Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and systematic applications of QE each time the stock market took a decent intermediate correction. Here is a closer view showing the expansion of money supplies as relates to the 2008 liquidation (QE1), the 2010 market disturbance … Continue reading NFTRH; Post FOMC
As noted, this site is going to be more technical in nature where we do real work to get the markets right, as opposed to make inflammatory commentary about the markets. Now Biiwii on the other hand, is transitioning back toward another long-term interest of mine, and that’d be the aforementioned commentary. FOMC Cites Job Gains? Continue reading @Biiwii
The market may be a little jumpy today but whirring beneath the surface here on Fed hype day, the 10 vs. 2 year yield curve is looking risk ‘ON’ ish. It’s just one tool and it’s just one hype filled day, but this is not a picture of people flying to liquidity. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including … Continue reading Yield Curve Today
Going back to the days when I was in the industry, I once invested in FARO at 2 to 4 bucks a share and sold out at 25. This was after inviting them in to give me a demo on one of their Faro Arms over a decade ago. This gizmo would take the place of bigger and bulkier coordinate measuring machines. I didn’t … Continue reading FARO Pop, Sag & Year End
A snapshot of daily technicals on key ETFs…
GLD is in a series of lower lows and lower highs. It failed to rise above the June low, and so remains bearish until it can at least clear 120 and then later, make a higher high to July.
