Allow me to share with you some crude artwork to illustrate the rough path most likely for US stock markets in the coming weeks through year end. I thought a simple cartoon might suit our needs nicely. The black lines are what have been, up to today. The blue is how this type of correction might typically unfold.
In a volatile environment perhaps a good way for many people to go (other than the #1 option, cash) is trading the indicators and indexes, a opposed to individual stocks. In that regard, I think that long-term T bonds are getting over done on the upside (R.I.P. ‘Great Rotation’).
Usually interim updates are all business, talking about changes in indicators or technical analysis or parameters. Well, this market is getting beyond the black and white and bears some discussion, from one market participant to another. So pretending that you casually asked me ‘hey pal, what do you think about the markets?’…
A snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced a good way toward the key resistance noted previously, which is the June low. This level is a very key decision point, because gold remains bearish below that level.
As crude oil continues down today we are presented with a perfect opportunity to review why gold mining fundamentals can IMPROVE in a rising US dollar atmosphere. So many people run the equation through their heads: USD Strong = Run Away!
A return to a previous NFTRH+ highlight for base metals enthusiasts for simple little trade.
Now that the Dow has joined nearly everything else in marking a lower low to the August low and the sentiment backdrop is getting very bearish (per October’s reputation), a reversal can come at any time. Yesterday, as the market was positive we NFTRH+’d* a bear trade setup on QQQ, but the market reversed downward again. The parameters in that update still apply on any coming bounce.
Today may or may not be the bounce that was expected off of the bearish developments last week. If so, or in the event such a bounce materializes this week I wanted to put some parameters down on the QQQ.
Reference back to January of 2013. In an NFTRH update we talked about a contact of mine who supplies the equipment sector of the Semiconductor industry, who advised that the industry was on a “ramp up”. The equipment companies are the likes of AMAT, MKSI and LRCX who gear up for Semiconductor Fab cycles.
From yesterday’s update…
[edit] Please accept my apologies. Futures are down, but not nearly as drastically as what was earlier noted. MarketWatch showed indexes down around 2.5% but Bloomberg had them at around -.5%. A check of the actual prices shows the Bloomberg data is correct. So take everything below as a future game plan in case the August lows are breached.
The news driven short covering rally yesterday was impressive and now momo’s are being punished. Makes sense.
The title's quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting…
Well, today the expected reversal in USD is firming up as the big down day on Monday gets some follow through. There is nothing much to add to all of…
A technical snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced from critical support (equiv. of gold 1180). MACD triggered up is positive.