A snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced a good way toward the key resistance noted previously, which is the June low. This level is a very key decision point, because gold remains bearish below that level.
SLV remains bearish, with a decision yet to come on whether the little bounce can get to the big resistance line or not. Non-traders should understand that below 18 is bearish, period and any real bull market would not care if entry came at 16 or 18+.
GDX is bearish below the May low, which holds heavy resistance. Indeed, a bounce could take it all the way to the moving averages and it would still not yet be bullish. MACD is crossed up and the chart is in a decent little short-term pattern.
GDXJ actually got above resistance, which it is trying to test as support now. Importantly, the string of higher highs and higher lows was broken and now we should be aware that the red arrow could be a scout for future downside. Just pointing it out folks.
GDXJ vs. GDX made a lower low so we can no longer claim a series of higher highs and higher lows, although the snap back was decisive.
SIL is bearish below the June low but trying to deal with the December low.
GLD-USO favors improvement to gold mining industry fundamentals going forward.
GLD-DBC favors our big picture view of chronic economic contraction as counter cyclical gold out performs cyclical commodities within a global deflationary pull.
GLD-SPY has made some progress, but has done nothing it has not done before through the bear market in gold and bull market in stocks. Only when this indicator rises for real will the gold stock sector be likely to gain attention from investors.
We’ll add the 10 year vs. 2 year yield spread to keep track of going forward because it has been a persistently bearish indicator for precious metals and it is making a technical move.
DBC, along with most commodities is flat out broken.
USO is broken.
UNG is grappling at support.
URA is deeply over sold (and bearish) despite the bounce in the price of Uranium lately.
TLT is on the verge of busting the channel amidst the bearish backdrop in asset markets.
TIP-TLT hows how persistent the deflationary pull is becoming.
HYG-TLT and HYG-LQD continue to indicate a bearish backdrop for most asset markets as speculation comes out and risk goes very OFF. This indicator by the way is helpful to gold’s fundamental case on the big picture.
SPY held below resistance and joined Club Misery. The lower low is a negative marker for future downside.
QQQ is trapped below resistance and bearish.
SMH made the highlight films last week. Bearish.
IWM is bearish, period, despite any bounces that fail to take it above 110. Though not shown on the daily chart, the weekly is in a well formed bearish pattern.
XLE was a failed NFTRH+ trade idea and a bearish chart after support (now resistance) was lost.
EZU is bearish with a new level of resistance built in.
EWP is the same as EZU.
FXI is actually relatively stable mushing around trying to find support.
EEM is above support and below resistance.
DXJ & EWJ are both bearish, despite what the Yen is doing.
FXY has reversed out of a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle, which is just that, a reversal pattern.
FXE is bearish below resistance.
UUP is bullish above support.
Bottom Line
Precious Metals: Bearish, but fundamentals finally starting to engage. As in 2008, price downside + fundamental backdrop = buying opportunity. We will track and update as usual going forward.
Commodities: No change, bearish amid a backdrop that looks increasingly deflationary.
Stock Markets: The US joins global markets in a bearish state. Where in an uptrend the rule is buy the pullbacks, in a down trend it is short the bounces. That is for traders. For most people cash remains the best option.
Currencies: Yen making a short-term bottom, Euro still bearish having proven nothing and USD is still bullish until/unless it starts losing some support levels.
