A snapshot of current technicals…
GLD climbed above the June low but is still considered at resistance below the SMA 50. Also note GLD remains in a down trend (series of lower highs and lower lows) which would not be broken until a rise above the July high around 129.
SLV is wallowing well below resistance in a little pattern that has bounced a bit. But SLV remains bearish below 18.
GDX remains below resistance and above support. Bulls would want to see a rise above 22 that holds for a few days. Bears, the opposite.
GDXJ is still trying to find support at the May low.
SIL is also trying to turn the December low to support, but like GDX faces resistance at the May/June lows.
Gold vs. the US stock market is giving back some of its gains and remains in a downtrend.
Gold vs. Commodities continues to look much better. The chart of gold-oil is similar.
DBC continues to be very bearish and an indicator that inflation and its effects are very different that 2001-2011. Commodities are broken below CCI’s 500 level.
DBA failed at resistance and is back testing the former downtrend channel.
DBB is above support.
URA is bouncing with the stock market, from deeply over sold conditions. This while the recent u3o8 price strength remains a positive divergence.
COPX is bouncing to resistance. Let’s keep an eye on it.
USO has key resistance at 33.
UNG broke down from its consolidation and is busted.
TLT blew off amidst the risk ‘OFF’ of the last couple of weeks and is now back in the uptrend channel.
TIP-TLT could try to bounce, but inflation expectations continue not to be there.
TLT-SPY is making like the VIX and dropping hard with the bull bounce back in stocks.
HYG has revved back near its highs with the stock market sentiment recovery.
HYG-TLT & HYG-LQD are bouncing back but remain in downtrends. Here we might recall our weekly view of HYG-TLT on which we have noted the possibility of a bounce back in speculative urges.
Here is that weekly view for perspective…
10yr-2yr Yield Curve, while still in a long-term downtrend, continues aloft. This should rise to support a bearish view on stocks and a bullish one on gold. If it breaks back down, the opposite would be in effect. Just an FYI for reference…
SPY is ‘V’ bouncing. Support to this bounce is 190. Key resistance is 196 to 197.50.
QQQ has resistance at 97 and support around 94.50. 99 is the doorway to things the bears would not want to see.
SMH is out of phase with the SOX, which is right at the resistance defined as the August lows. The hysterical and hype filled gap down is being filled.
IWM is at resistance and being watched as a leader, along with the Semi’s. The rebound could eventually test the underside of the Triangle breakdown.
EZU can bounce to 38, where a bearish opportunity may come about.
EWP can bounce to 38, where a bearish opportunity may come about.
EEM banged support and made a constructive looking MACD.
FXI continues to hold the first support zone after dropping below it and testing the SMA 200. MACD is also constructive here.
DXJ-EWJ have dropped hard with the recent global market problems/
DXJ in ratio to EWJ dropped hard as the Yen rose. Hedging cuts both ways.
FXY has dropped as markets have tried to repair the damage of the last 2 weeks.
FXE is still below resistance.
UUP is still above support.
Bottom Line
Precious Metals: Still in long-term downtrends. Dealing with critical support and short-term resistance. While we are aware that our ‘quality leaders’ remain in intermediate uptrends, the whole of the sector is still in the mire and technically (ref. silver) broken down in some cases.
Commodities: Aside from special interests that are bouncing (Uranium, REE’s, Lithium, etc.), the commodity sector remains ‘no touch’ while inflation signals are non-existent. Keeping an eye on the combo of copper/copper miners and China (FXI/SSEC).
Bonds: The flight to risk ‘OFF’ popped long-term T bonds too high. That is being corrected. No inflation signals yet from TIP-TLT and junk vs. ‘quality’ spreads are bouncing but still bearish for markets on the bigger picture.
US Stock Markets: The US is bouncing and typical of these things, the bounce is making bears question themselves. I have seen it oozing from the comments at some bearish sites like Zero Hedge where people seem to be conceding to the bulls and their supposed Fed backers. The bounce was always going to happen and with the hype of the downside (esp. from the Semiconductor sector) it is not surprising that the bounce is violent and a ‘V’ type of thing. We will watch to see if bounce morphs to bull resumption, but below key resistance levels this is still just a bounce.
Global Stock Markets: Bearish but bouncing in Europe. Though not shown in an already bloated ETF update above, the World index and Canada are bouncing as well, but still bearish. The Emerging Markets may become interesting, especially if the USD were to decline. Finally, the China 25 ETF FXI is doing something it did months ago; it is asking me to put aside what I think I know in favor of its constructive chart. Early in the year it formed a bottoming pattern while markets were still bearish. We noted it and traded it, without knowing why on earth it was bullish. Watching FXI now for a similar reason.
Currencies: Yen bounced with the market upsets and got repelled with the relief. Euro is below resistance and USD still above support.
