NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of current technical status…

GLD made a bearish breakdown below the equiv. of gold 1180.  To even think about repairing the technicals, GLD would have to get above 115 at a minimum (gold above 1180).

gld

SLV made its key breakdown in September and that level (18) is major resistance.  Meanwhile, there is now resistance beginning at 16 as well.

slv

GDX is trying to bounce off of a capitulation or semi-capitulation low.  Gold stocks are also in breakdown mode below resistance.

gdx

SIL is very similar.

sil

SLV-GLD is also in breakdown mode, which has been bearish for not only the precious metals, but also commodities and the inflation case.  So far, no sign of a bounce off of deeply over sold RSI.

slv.gld

GLD-USO is still looking constructive with respect to a gold mining fundamental case.

gld.uso

GLD-SPY is still looking quite bad for a gold mining investment case (as viewed by the average stock market participant).

gld.spy

DBC is still quite broken with some positive divergence in the momentum oscillators.

dbc

DBA continues to try to form a bottom as noted 2 weeks ago in the last ETF update.  A rise above the SMA 50 would be helpful.

dba

DBB is at key resistance right at the SMA 50.

dbb

USO is trapped below resistance.

uso

UNG made the big break to the SMA 200 and is now dropping to test that break.

ung

URA made a big jump as well and when considering it along with UNG, we are reminded of early in the year as the rolling commodity speculations (Uranium, NatGas, Agricultural, etc.) started percolating.  Hedge funds community at play?

ura

COPX is nowhere, but also with some positive divergence.

copx

TLT seems to be settling gently above the SMA 50.  At this point TLT is a risk ‘OFF’ indicator and can be watched as such.  A bullish TLT would probably not be bullish for the stock market.

tlt

HYG-TLT is still in a downtrend and thus negatively diverging the US stock market.

hyg.tlt

HYG-LQD is a little better but also in a downtrend and negatively diverging the stock market.

hyg.lqd

SPY is just fine.  Over bullish sentiment, getting over bought, some macro fundamentals slipping slightly… but just fine technically at this writing.

spy

QQQ is interesting as it rides the New Highs Express but creeps along the under side of the broken up channel.  It’s in (channel) break down mode!  And at new highs.  Too funny.

qqq

IWM exceeded the September high.  Now the June high awaits.

iwm

EWC is interesting.  If Canada gets through the noted resistance (and moving averages) it looks like it would test the highs from Aug./Sept.

ewc

EZU could be rolling over.  It dropped below the EMA 10, which we have noted is our short-term tolerance point on stock markets, yesterday.

ezu

EWG did the same.

ewg

EWP as well.  So Euro quality and Euro junk are weak.

ewp

EEM looks to be forming a pattern of some kind, but is below significant resistance reinforced by the moving averages.

eem

FXI is below resistance but we’ll call it constructive as long as it holds around the SMA 50.

fxi

FXE is a mess, with the foreboding jawbone of Draghi lurking somewhere behind it.

fxe

UUP remains bullish as global policy makers scare everyone out of their currencies and into USD.

uup

FXY is the prime example.  The Yen was rising toward an important resistance level off of an over sold condition.  This came with the global asset market correction.  The Yen then predictably found resistance at 92.75 and turned down as would be expected.  BoJ would have none of this bullish activity and they hung the Yen out to dry for the world to see with the directive that this global risk ‘OFF’ unit must never be allowed to rise (and indicate risk ‘OFF’).  Result?  Party on Garth.

fxy

Bottom Line

Precious Metals:  Bearish but attempting to bounce.  Will not go bullish until resistance at significantly higher levels is taken out.  We will manage accordingly as usual.

Commodities:  Bearish as well.  Further, commodities (incl. silver to a degree) depend on inflation, whereas the case for gold mining ultimately does not.  It appears certain items are playing the ‘rolling speculations’ game again.

Stock Markets:  US has fully recovered and with this, some would say an alarming recovery in bullish sentiment has engaged.  This must be owing to Fed jawbones, which everybody knows want asset appreciation, a BoJ symbolic of the disreputable lengths the global central banking community will go to, a still relatively strong US economy, a USD sucking funding into US markets, bullish seasonals… need we go on?  It’s all bullish and we’ll continue to contend that that could be a problem.

As for global, it’s a mixed bag out there.  Japan is okay inverse its currency.  Canada actually looks interesting if the noted resistance is taken out, the EM’s are uninspiring, China is better and Europe is a mess.

Currencies:  USD  bullish, Euro bearish, Yen a joke and commodity currencies (not shown) are still bearish as they have been for so long now.