NFTRH 702, out now

The screenshot tells some of what’s in the report but fails to mention the heaping helping of precious metals and commodity/resource stocks also included. NFTRH 702, doing its job of ‘top-downing’ the macro in a quality manner, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and … Continue reading NFTRH 702, out now

Stock market correction or something worse?

As the US stock market corrects… US indexes are largely intact, and that includes NDX, even as everybody hates Tech now. SOX is intact too, but as we’ve noted for weeks in NFTRH, was vulnerable to correction of its own overbought excesses (especially by the sexiest Semi leaders like NVDA and AMD). SPX is nose diving for a test of its SMA 200 and so … Continue reading Stock market correction or something worse?

vs. SPY

Weekly views of several sectors vs. the broad SPY… These weekly charts show the main trends of various individual sectors vs. the S&P 500, which is comprised of the whole lot of them. On these charts, the trends are what is important, not TA concepts like patterns, support, resistance, etc. The trends, and secondarily the potentials that they may change (you will notice a few … Continue reading vs. SPY

T-Minus 1 Day to Christmas Eve & SPX Would Have Us Believe…

SPX would have us believe that it could actually do the rough opposite of what it did last year during the 2018 Christmas Eve massacre, when people were out doing last minute shopping, were out reveling, sipping or gulping cocktails, were out cutting each other off in traffic in a final frenzied display before peace and goodwill toward their fellow man temporarily settled in with … Continue reading T-Minus 1 Day to Christmas Eve & SPX Would Have Us Believe…

“Wall Street Fears”

Perfect words, those title words. You know the drill; click headline, get article. Yesterday we noted that the US headline indexes were simply using the media’s play-by-play as an excuse to fill the most recent gaps, put there by whatever happy stuff drove casino patrons last week. “Until today, the market has been nonplused by the comings and goings of the comments and reports but … Continue reading “Wall Street Fears”

Casino Jerks Downward to Fill Gaps: “what seems to matter most of all is if headlines go south on trade”

For day traders the media serve up the reason that the market is dropping today. Why, it’s the trade war, stupid! Click the headline for the article (or click the bemused looking man with the declining stock chart behind him). “What we’re seeing in the market today is another reminder that tariffs reign supreme,” says TD Ameritrade chief market strategist JJ Kinahan. “You can have … Continue reading Casino Jerks Downward to Fill Gaps: “what seems to matter most of all is if headlines go south on trade”

US Stock Market

With the real action taking place in the precious metals lately one might think that we’ve forgotten or at least downplayed the US stock market. Not so. Here’s the first part of NFTRH 564’s US Stock Market segment. We then went on to cover the various sectors, market internals, global markets, commodities, precious metals and so on and so forth. The whole shootin’ match, as … Continue reading US Stock Market

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NFTRH; Notes on the US Stock Market (medium priority)

So here we are. SPX is lurking just below the 2600 area (target extends from 2600 up to 2650 or so) and things sure do seem different than they did leading into the Christmas Eve massacre. That is the nature of a counter-trend bounce. It’s job is to re-embolden the bulls and put doubt into the bears. What I am going to do is go … Continue reading NFTRH; Notes on the US Stock Market (medium priority)

A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation

A small excerpt from NFTRH 524: Let’s take a brief look at earnings season. A complete view can be found at Factset. While fiscally stimulated corporate performance has been going great guns, it appears that a softening is out ahead. I inserted an arrow at the relevant point. The market could simply be correcting its over valuation per EPS as it did in 2015-2016, assuming … Continue reading A Brief Look at Earnings Season and a Measure of SPX Over Valuation

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NFTRH; The US Stock Market’s Ample Signaling Beneath the Surface (high priority)

While the US stock market is generally testing the 200 day moving averages, it is not as simple for the bulls as just a technical test for the indexes. The higher highs of September to February were attended by degrading internals like flagging leadership (ex. Semi to Tech, Tech to broad market), rotation into defensive areas and worsening market breadth by indicators like Advance/Decline, Equal … Continue reading NFTRH; The US Stock Market’s Ample Signaling Beneath the Surface (high priority)

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NFTRH; SPX, INDU & NDX (medium priority)

SPX keeps the bull trap scenario alive by not making a higher high before today’s downturn. That downturn only filled a gap so at face value it is nothing serious. Lose the January high (green dashed line) again and we would start talking more seriously about a correction. Dow turned down a bit but is well above the 25,800 breakout point, which set the January … Continue reading NFTRH; SPX, INDU & NDX (medium priority)