NFTRH; Market Notes

Precious Metals

I got back near the end of the day and observed that HUI promptly gave back any in-day bounce hopes and has now closed below the 2008 low.  Any prospect of closing above 150.27 was a non-starter.  My apologies for any unnecessary noise.

Capitulation is ongoing, but this is the result of forced liquidation as the final holdouts are compelled to sell by the margin clerk and by their own guts.  It has a life of its own.  It can end tomorrow or it can take just as long as it needs to finishing cleaning things up.

A time of real capitulation is a time to be ready for a buying opportunity that could be a wonderful hold for a new cycle.  But with the close below 150… well, you know the drill folks. The target down near 100 is wide open and gaping.

As a scary aside, the writer who has come up with reasons to be bullish on gold stocks all the way down (while somehow sounding in control and right at all times) ended a piece yesterday with talk about a bullish GDXJ with an (!) ending 2 of the last 3 paragraphs.  Unbelievable.

Gold is broken below 1180 and silver is just a mess.  CEF is selling at a whopping discount and there’s gold and silver available at bargain prices for anyone interested.  Oh, they’re not interested?  That’s a surprise.

This is the stuff of capitulation and bottoms, but the final ingredients are price (there is a trap door there) and fundamentals (they are not baked).  So we are going to have to manage the whole package.  This is what we live for, figuratively speaking anyway.

Stock Market

Energies (including Uranium) got a bump on the Republican hype today.  Let’s see if it has legs.

As for the broad market, nope, no ‘sell the news’ thing, at least not yet.  It is bullish until proven otherwise, especially given the traditionally bullish seasonals.

I am starting to watch for tax loss season candidates.  These would be the ones that have spent much of 2014 gently declining (you don’t want charts with too much jagged up and down volatility) into potential lows that can be watched for tax loss selling and buying opportunity, for a projected ‘January effect’ if the market is willing this year.

There are some decent companies out there that have charts asking to be bought for this reason.  We’ll take this slow, but try to highlight some examples of what to look for chart-wise, in the coming weeks.