NFTRH 319 Out Now

It’s a global game of Whack-a-Mole (currency devaluation) and in this game certain countries and economic zones make sense in some ways.  Japan for instance may be viewed as USA circa 2004 [edit] Yen over sold, USD example implies bounce w/ Nikkei correction before any opportunity presents.  Germany is also an exporter of machine tools, autos and equipment.  The US is interesting for a completely … Continue reading NFTRH 319 Out Now

Yield Curve Today

It’s in a risk ‘OFF’ alignment with all durations dropping but the curve rising.   Meanwhile, here’s the chart of the 30 vs. the 5 year spread.  Obviously risk is in a downtrend bigger picture, but it is a little bouncy today… While other indicators are positive for the gold sector, this one – along with the very bullish stock market – has been a … Continue reading Yield Curve Today

Gold vs. Oil

First let’s preface by stating that I have a dislike for gold sector pom pom wavers as evidenced by this post at Biiwii:  Huey, Dewey & Louie. Second, let’s ask what kind of sense it makes to hammer gold mining operations because oil is going down.  Gold is exploding higher in relation to the thing that fuels all that heavy equipment at the mines. I … Continue reading Gold vs. Oil


The long bond fund TLT has looked just fine, as we had been noting in NFTRH ETF updates during its bowl-like pattern.  It’s now broken above it.  Daily MACD and RSI are both good. Risk ON/OFF indicator TLT-SPY has however, not made such a move. Just a little snapshot into one of myriad things to watch with this market as we come down to some … Continue reading TLT & TLT-SPY

Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

Excerpted from the November 23 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 318: Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started. Last … Continue reading Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

Stocks; Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold

[edit] Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads… [edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318 [edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the bubble blow out.  Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, … Continue reading Stocks; Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold