It’s a global game of Whack-a-Mole (currency devaluation) and in this game certain countries and economic zones make sense in some ways. Japan for instance may be viewed as USA circa 2004  Yen over sold, USD example implies bounce w/ Nikkei correction before any opportunity presents. Germany is also an exporter of machine tools, autos and equipment. The US is interesting for a completely … Continue reading NFTRH 319 Out Now
It’s in a risk ‘OFF’ alignment with all durations dropping but the curve rising. Meanwhile, here’s the chart of the 30 vs. the 5 year spread. Obviously risk is in a downtrend bigger picture, but it is a little bouncy today… While other indicators are positive for the gold sector, this one – along with the very bullish stock market – has been a … Continue reading Yield Curve Today
It’s a monthly chart and these guys move like molasses on a cold winter day. But we might wonder how long it may take for the stock market’s loss of leadership to manifest in some problems. The chart is untouched and unchanged in status since it was produced a few months ago. So for bulls it’s situation normal. The SOX index has another 64 points … Continue reading Small Cap Leadership Kaput
We have a developing potential for a stock market upside blow off on the table for reasons explained previously. With this update I want to present the indicators that argue to the contrary and ask us to manage risk. I cannot predict which way the chips will fall (no pun intended) but I can continue to put up indicators for guidance.
First let’s preface by stating that I have a dislike for gold sector pom pom wavers as evidenced by this post at Biiwii: Huey, Dewey & Louie. Second, let’s ask what kind of sense it makes to hammer gold mining operations because oil is going down. Gold is exploding higher in relation to the thing that fuels all that heavy equipment at the mines. I … Continue reading Gold vs. Oil
Per the simple measurement of this chart and others like it we have used, we find WTI crude oil at target this morning.
Let’s remember that targets are not stop signs, they are objectives based on pattern measurements.
Happy Thanksgiving dear NFTRH subscribers and website readers. See you on Friday. Continue reading Happy Thanksgiving
Way 1 is the short-term view showing the wild recent history of a huge drop, instigated by one chip company’s dour projection and then a whole media hype pig pile. The target is 750 based on this pattern, roughly corresponding with the NFTRH+ target of 40 on Intel. Way 2 is the big monthly view, which we have been using since starting to get constructive … Continue reading SOX Index, 2 Ways
A snapshot of current daily technicals…
GLD is just above very tentative support. Does not mean much however, until it closes above the SMA 50.
The long bond fund TLT has looked just fine, as we had been noting in NFTRH ETF updates during its bowl-like pattern. It’s now broken above it. Daily MACD and RSI are both good. Risk ON/OFF indicator TLT-SPY has however, not made such a move. Just a little snapshot into one of myriad things to watch with this market as we come down to some … Continue reading TLT & TLT-SPY
I did not make the point clear in the previous post but as NFTRH subscribers may recall, it is the Semi Equipment companies (they that supply the chip makers with Fab equipment) that are the Canaries in the Coal Mine’s Canary. In other words, they are the early mover (front end industry) to a new Semiconductor cycle, whereas the chip makers are the back end. … Continue reading Regarding the Semi’s
Excerpted from the November 23 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 318: Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started. Last … Continue reading Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating
I was going to NFTRH+ this, but then decided that the chart had neither the implied upside nor quite the setup I’d like. But I thought I’d pop it up here anyway because I know a lot of folks are really into Palladium, given its unique supply/demand fundamentals (so they say). PALL has dropped to the nose of the Bullish Symmetrical Triangle from last year. … Continue reading Palladium (PALL) Weekly Chart
 Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads… [edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318 [edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the dot.com/tech bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, … Continue reading Stocks; Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold