NFTRH+; L/T Treasury Yield Setup

In a volatile environment perhaps a good way for many people to go (other than the #1 option, cash) is trading the indicators and indexes, a opposed to individual stocks.  In that regard, I think that long-term T bonds are getting over done on the upside (R.I.P. ‘Great Rotation’).

As for trading indicators, in a totally insane bout of river boat gambling I shorted the VIX, which by the way it is flying all over the place (along with my stomach) and I would not recommend such a trade to anyone.  But a more sedate macro indicator trade could be in T bonds.

Here is the 30 year yield banging into a would-be support point.  The vehicle would be TBT or some other tracker that would follow the yield as a bullish trade (bearish on the long bond itself).


Buy Target (on the yield):  2.8% +/-

Sell Target:  Around 3.2% yield (subject to macro backdrop, which could extend the trade)

Stop Loss:  A loss of 2.8% and a continued decline in asset markets, which would probably drop the yield lower in a flight to safety by panicked casino patrons

I cannot stress strongly enough that trading in this environment is dangerous until things settle down, so understand that I am churning ideas (several of which have been flops lately) for your consideration and that most people should be waiting in cash for actionable signals in the markets.

I remind you that NFTRH+ updates are just trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the parameters are already noted.  They are meant as a starting point for further research if interested.