The recent journey has been out of a jittery summer filled with trade war anxiety, into a rally and breakout in the S&P 500 and a Q4 bounce in the…
The Continuum (the systematic downtrend in long-term Treasury yields) has for decades given the Fed the green light on inflation. Sometimes it runs hot (as per the red arrows) and…
As noted a million times out here in the last 6 months my question has been 'Q4 2019 or H1 2020?' for the next inflation trade. Well, since the recent…
We have pointed out that the "inverted yield curve!!!" hype of last summer was just that, technical sounding hyperbole for the public to get riled up about by way of…
Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of supposed economic splendor…
A look at a few of the macro indicators to what is ahead regarding the inflation/deflation (or damn her, Goldilocks)* view... The Continuum (30yr bond yield, monthly chart) still resides…
I am not a bond trader or stock market analyst by original profession. Until 2004, when I became a public market writer and especially 2008, when I began to work…
As suspected, the various inflation/reflation trades were just bouncing in their downtrends as they have stopped within those downtrends after some pushed the limits. Commodities are chained to inflation expectations…
As inflation expectations continue to ease again (daily chart)... The 30 year Treasury yield (AKA the Continuum) has crossed back below the line of demarcation (monthly chart). These indicators are…
Interesting setups in the markets. The futures are positive this morning and though the markets have had a couple tough days the "drive to 5" remains on track. The very…
The inflationist gold bug does not understand why yields are down, commodities (ex-wildcards like Agri) are down, reflation trades are down, the US dollar is up and yet gold and…
So we have FOMC standing ready with the actual potential to rock the markets due to the split opinions of the Fed Rate Futures boyz. It has actually moderated back…
Note the word bounce, which in TA means what it sounds like... a bounce within an existing trend. Note the trends here by the slopes of the moving averages. I…
The 30 year Treasury bond yield hit an extreme last month and is the last man standing in the way of a deflationary event of some kind. Confusingly, it is…