Time for a Turn?
This is the opening segment from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 544. This segment is usually written before I've done the weekend work, which is…
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March 24, 2019
The Men Who Stare at Charts: Decades of Disinflation & 7 Years Post-Op Twist
I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate…
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January 3, 2019
NFTRH; Update to the Update
The update about the Baltic Dry index (BDI) brought about a couple of responses from learned subscribers. Subscriber A noted that a lot of shipping activity is happening ahead of…
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November 28, 2018
“It’s Inflation All the Way, Baby!”
The title's quote is from my late friend Jonathan Auerbach, who was the founding/managing partner of Auerbach Grayson in NYC, a brokerage specializing in global investment. "It's inflation all the…
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October 15, 2018
Crack Up Boom?
A chart by Callum Thomas showing projected credit growth based on easing credit standards is in line with a boom, and an inflationary one at that. See Credit Growth About…
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August 8, 2018
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off in Q1 2016
I am sure you remember the lead up to Q1 2016. The US economy and stock market were transitioning from a Goldilocks environment and narrowly avoiding a bear market while…
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June 14, 2018
Inflation, With a Shelf Life
The following is excerpted from NFTRH 496's US & Global Market Indicators & Internals segment. It took on a life of its own, considering what you see below is not…
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April 22, 2018
Bonds, Inflation & Amigos
The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491…
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March 18, 2018
NFTRH; Multi-Market Update
Gold Sector We covered HUI's status in yesterday afternoon's update. The sector usually ends corrections (it has been in one long, corrective consolidation since 2016) with a shakeout, and these…
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March 1, 2018
The Age-Old Question; Inflation or Deflation?
I try to have a lot of different ways of looking at the macro backdrop because if enough of them imply the same thing then a strong probabilities-based thesis can…
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February 15, 2018
Day 1, 2018 is on (Inflationary) Message
The inflationary theme for the first half of 2018 is getting off to a good start. Well, it has actually been going for a while now, but Day 1, 2018…
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January 2, 2018
At the Junction of Risk ‘On’ and Risk ‘Off’
[edit] As I do the actual work of plowing through NFTRH 472 I am noting some non-bond related indicators in line with the fading Junk/Quality ratios and easing Treasury yields…
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November 4, 2017
The Big Macro Play Ahead
At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are…
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October 27, 2017
“Great Rotation” Ahead; Will it Be Inflationary or Deflationary?
[edit] This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my…
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October 20, 2017
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