Updated Inflation/Reflation Pictures

A look at a few of the macro indicators to what is ahead regarding the inflation/deflation (or damn her, Goldilocks)* view…

The Continuum (30yr bond yield, monthly chart) still resides above 2.2% resistance. It’s still in-month October, but so far it has clung to its constructive state after the yield washouts of August and September. Amazing how 1 year ago all you could hear was “BOND BEAR MARKET!!!” all the time. Now we’re just trying to get a counter-trend rally in yields (pullback in bonds) going.


Daily chart TIP ratios continue to indicate a little buoyancy in inflation expectations but nothing anywhere near conclusive yet.


Yet the Canada-specific measure we use is not in agreement that the above are doing anything notable as they bounce and it (CDNX/TSX) plods lower.


While the Yield Curve, which can steepen under pains of inflation or deflation, continues to try to put on another steepener (right into FOMC) after the last one failed (right after FOMC).

yield curve

Silver/Gold ratio continues to be constructive on the daily chart. Another upturn here would probably signal an oncoming wider inflation/reflation trade.

silver gold ratio

Yet the big picture continues to trend… well, you know.

silver gold ratio

* And Goldilocks is not necessarily dead, as another sector we’ve been tracking will attest…


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