Inflation Fades

As noted a million times out here in the last 6 months my question has been ‘Q4 2019 or H1 2020?’ for the next inflation trade.

Well, since the recent reflationary bounce has been strong but still only a ‘bounce’, the question is not yet resolved but looking more and more like the answer may be H1 2020, assuming we do not get sucked down in a deflationary whirlpool… or worse, have to endure a Goldilocks economy in the US.*

Here are some pictures of a wobbling (but not broken) inflation bounce for Q4.

tyx

2 year yield

tip tlt ratio

gyx gld ratio

xme gdx ratio

And of course…

silver gold ratio

* Why am I so negative about a virtuous economic climate that most Americans would find satisfying? Because I am not Charlie Sheen and I don’t enjoy “winning, duh” at the cost of years of financial chicanery by the Federal Reserve. No, I want to see the Fed exposed for what it is, the inflator of last resort operating in the foothills of Debt Mountain.

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