Yesterday was a reminder that Fed members can and do interfere in the markets at will. Such power to move markets should be considered disreputable at best and criminal at worst. Of course, politicians have the power to move markets at will (oh sure, they would never have agents discretely set up to capitalize; yeah right) so why not the Fed, a quasi government associate … Continue reading NFTRH+; Goldilocks, USD and the Fed
The yield curve is flattening I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo). Well, the curve is flattening. Which means one of three things. … Continue reading Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective. NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also … Continue reading NFTRH 682 excerpt; COVID-19, 4th Wave
Below is an excerpt from an NFTRH report (#676, due out on 10.10) that has not even been written yet, outside of this opening segment that clarifies and makes some of the concepts NFTRH deals in more standard and hence, more readily understandable by more people. Unless you are a pure day trader there should always be a reason for a given investment stance at … Continue reading Trade/Invest macro ‘top down’; a guide
While including some personal editorial comments about gold and the precious metals sector #674 does all the real work with respect to the whole macro shootin’ match. I have a high confidence level that we’ll be on the right side of things when the time is right. Indeed, the macro actually ended last week with signaling in the inflationary direction, but with a few important … Continue reading NFTRH 674, out now
[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in … Continue reading When the tight economic rope slackens [w/ edit]
Goldilocks backdrop persists We expected a summer cool down in the inflation trades. We expected that to be reflected in a temporary Goldilocks environment (not too hot, not too cold where inflation expectations are concerned). As part of this rotation Tech and Growth would retake leadership, at least temporarily. Sure enough, the yield Continuum pulled back, value/growth broke down and Tech has re-taken the lead. … Continue reading Goldilocks still…
The screenshot of page 1 tells it all. Well, maybe not but it’s a cool picture. This week’s report drills in depth to the macro topics that I think are most important here and now. We – not the ranting inflationist down the street – anticipated the summer cool down along with the reasons that the Fed would want such a thing. Now we are … Continue reading NFTRH 664, out now
Goldilocks today, stagflation or deflation tomorrow? I get to write a post like this with a level of authority simply because NFTRH and possibly this public website were the only two entities that I know of that were talking about a pullback in the inflation trades at the height of the hysteria. The beginnings of our watch for a cool down in long-term yields and … Continue reading How long before Goldilocks is banished?
As noted a million times out here in the last 6 months my question has been ‘Q4 2019 or H1 2020?’ for the next inflation trade. Well, since the recent reflationary bounce has been strong but still only a ‘bounce’, the question is not yet resolved but looking more and more like the answer may be H1 2020, assuming we do not get sucked down … Continue reading Inflation Fades
According to those seers who are paid to usually be wrong, NFP would show +145,000 jobs after a fairly weak 130,000 last month. The employment situation is flat-lining. You can click the blurb below for the full report. Let’s now see who is floating the Good Ship Lollipop, in light of the ongoing Manufacturing slowdown and associated job losses. Why yes of course! Professional and … Continue reading Jobs +136,000 as the Good Ship Lollipop Sails On
