The stock market has refused to break, and despite the war-driven spike in oil prices, the macro is in an interim disinflationary phase, not an inflationary one. Ref. this morning's…
This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
The scenario discussed near the end of NFTRH 885 would, of course, not be a nightmare for everybody. For those who like the appearance of a sound economy, stable bond…
In the last few weeks we have been allowing for, even anticipating a renewed bout of inflation concerns as the yield curve (10-2) steepens, nominal yields had dropped significantly to…
The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it's in progress and thus far mildly inflationary Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11. In my opinion, after…
After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10yr-2yr yield curve A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or deflationary pressure.…
The macro market backdrop is not likely to go the way trend following market watchers currently anticipate In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary…
More "economic soft landing" hype hits the media, a perfect complement for the seasonal stock market party First there was the most cartoonish representation of the season, courtesy of the…
The deceleration in backward looking inflation signals continues, to little surprise. We have been managing a Goldilocks macro (inflation not too hot, not too cold) and that is where we…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #758 Summary of NFTRH 758 and the macro situation leading up to it US stock market held the rally and continues with a Goldilocks theme…
Admin first. As mentioned previously, I'll be away from my office for the rest of today and all day tomorrow. NFTRH 758 will be published on Sunday as usual. Now…
Janet Yellen is sooth saying the markets about the bank sector meltdown going on. It is government, not the Fed that is applying the band aids, talking about bailouts and…