Goldilocks has been our favored short-term outcome, and she just took a step forward Today [Wednesday] FOMC did the very much expected and hiked the Fed Funds Rate by .25%…
Goldilocks hangs in the balance of the Bessent, Warsh, Trump media drama We find ourselves at CPI/PPI week, just prior to FOMC week. Let the cacophonous Misdirection Olympics begin! You…
And I don't mean Hazel... Although Hazel and her grotesque grin are back as well, as August payrolls knocked it out of the park on the back of non-productive Leisure/Hospitality…
The anticipated disinflationary phase is finally here Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 921: Macro A hybrid “macro/sector fundamental” for gold stocks is the…
NFTRH 920 Summary A brief summary of the work done in this week’s report and in the updates and reports leading up to this point. Please read the detailed report…
Post-FOMC, a 'Goldilocks market' is developing and an unbiased view is called for Markets were apparently surprised by the hawkishness of the maiden voyage of the Warsh FOMC. Pre-FOMC we…
The stock market has refused to break, and despite the war-driven spike in oil prices, the macro is in an interim disinflationary phase, not an inflationary one. Ref. this morning's…
This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
The scenario discussed near the end of NFTRH 885 would, of course, not be a nightmare for everybody. For those who like the appearance of a sound economy, stable bond…
In the last few weeks we have been allowing for, even anticipating a renewed bout of inflation concerns as the yield curve (10-2) steepens, nominal yields had dropped significantly to…
The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it's in progress and thus far mildly inflationary Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11. In my opinion, after…
After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10yr-2yr yield curve A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or deflationary pressure.…
The macro market backdrop is not likely to go the way trend following market watchers currently anticipate In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary…