Public posts
Gold and SPX (ES) are doing what a sentiment relief bid would do The supposed banking "crisis" is an excuse to spur over-bearish sentiment into what I think may be…
USD and gold have both been firm (this morning) against a steepening yield curve It's a deflationary yield curve steepener, as evidenced by both the 10yr and 2yr yields dropping…
The S&P 500 (weekly, log scale) and a few of its risk indicators Progressing along and gaining a comfort level with this medium, here is the latest macro blurb to…
This is a Goldilocks rally, not an 'inflation trades' (or cyclical) rally Today is an 'FOMC comment-free' day for me, as there is nothing surprising or new going on there…
A deflationary yield curve steepener is hinted at but not yet activated How do we know that the recent spike is a would-be deflationary yield curve steepener? We know because…
Fear, greed and bias reinforcement sell. Reality, at any given time? Not so much. A look at stocks, commodities, inflation, gold and silver through a contrary lens. As I continue…
The inflation trades are fading and gold is ascending to its rightful place in the disinflationary macro The favored NFTRH plan is working out well as we planned the Q4…
Arista Networks stock (ANET) is flying in blue sky It was an opportunity taken (by me, and any subscribers following the Trade Log who might have had interest) and opportunity…
The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…
The NFTRH view has been for a macro transition from inflation (past) to 'Goldilocks' (present) to deflation (later) Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have…
Agricultural commodities are in decline while Livestock are ramping Here on CPI day, I thought it would be interesting to look at agricultural commodities along with the livestock that consume…
The inflation cycle comes to an ignominious end with the banking sector's theatrics Or I should say that the inflation cycle is coming to what certainly appears to be its…
Fed Funds Rate projections from CME Group adjusted from +.5% yesterday to +.25% today Silicon Valley Bank implodes and voila, the Fed Funds Rate projection dropped on cue. I will…
The banking sector is breaking down in relation to the S&P 500 [edit] SV Bank meltdown! Shows how closely I follow the news of the day. Obviously consistent with favored…