Q4-Q1 plan engages
Relief provided by an easing October CPI 'inflation' report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think…
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November 10, 2022
CPI: The munny shot!
Year over year CPI inflation rate eases in October An easing in concerns about the effects of the Fed's 2020 creation of massive sums of funny munny. Frankly, I was…
November 10, 2022
5 to 30 year ‘Breakeven Inflation Rates’ paint a different picture than RINF
'Inflation expectations' ETF out of phase with most 'Inflation Breakevens' Here is what RINF does, per its creator... ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that…
October 24, 2022
The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe
As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial…
October 20, 2022
“Post-bubble contraction”
"Post-bubble contraction" (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience.…
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October 14, 2022
CPI on message
CPI increases more than expected, but it's not forward-looking See Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes Well first of all guys, CPI is not inflation.…
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October 13, 2022
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way
FOMC, inflation, commodities & gold Even as inflation expectations roll over from the 2022 high... ...the CRB index continues to bounce. Here's DBC for an up to the minute view.…
October 6, 2022
Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields
Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the…
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September 20, 2022
Media sporting Wood again (about deflation)
Say, did you know that Cathie Wood favors deflation? Why yes ladies and gentlemen, foremost overvalued story stock picker Cathie Wood thinks deflation is coming. That is quite contrarian alright…
September 15, 2022
Post-CPI observations, per request
You may by now recognize Mike, who is a new NFTRH subscriber and who has had a lot of input and questions in the comments section. I think that is…
August 10, 2022
Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential
As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision... Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this... The daily charts say one…
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July 26, 2022
Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets
The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME…
July 15, 2022
Epic (CPI) Inflation!!!!
Another CPI report, another big inflation headline All I can say (publicly) is that we are on track. I was actually concerned that today's headline might be the opposite of…
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July 13, 2022
What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?
The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its…
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July 12, 2022
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