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‘Inflation expectations’ ETF out of phase with most ‘Inflation Breakevens’

Here is what RINF does, per its creator…

ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that track the performance of the FTSE 30-Year TIPS (Treasury Rate-Hedged) Index.

I am sure the inputs are different, but RINF tracks the St. Louis Fed’s 30yr Breakeven Inflation rate most closely. But even there, per the most recent available data, it’s not a good correlation. Although the shorter Treasury maturities indicate that lingering inflation hysterics are clustered to the long end.

As the 5 year breakeven inflation rate bounces but continues in roll-over mode…

…the 10yr b/e inflation rate does the same in less dramatic fashion, and…

…the 30yr b/e inflation rate is not exactly screaming HYPER-INFLATION!!!!

RINF is ticking new highs.

I don’t know what the elements to the RINF chart are but it’s a good bet they have more to do with the long end of the Treasury curve where the 30yr is getting beaten like a rented mule as shorter maturities have been firmer (yields weaker) just lately.

All in all, with the ‘whatever the heck RINF is doing’ caveat, it’s not a compelling picture of forward inflation.

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