As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…
Gold declined last week. Silver did too. The miners too. The macro is not yet aligned fundamentally, to back a new gold bull market leg or especially, a new gold miner leg up. So with daily charts compromised (but not quite broken) last week with respect to the seasonal bounce, we hold open gold to the mid-1500s and HUI to the gap at 212 as … Continue reading NFTRH+; sheer beauty
I know what NFTRH is, and it’s not for everybody. Not to come off like a wise guy, but the herd is after all, the herd for a reason. It’s time not to be herding, but that’s what most are doing. It’s just a fact of markets because most of the time players rightly herd with the trends. But in times of transition, that herding … Continue reading NFTRH 691, out now
Whereby I subject you to another one of my riffs where the drummer trapped in my computer is the only guy who’s on time consistently with his instrument. A couple issues with the guitar and bass meshing and a guitar flub or two, but I leave ’em in under the guise that it’s just another song idea. Not nearly a finished product. I really think … Continue reading 2nd Shadow
A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
As the copper price (futures) fade from short-term resistance, sagging through the SMA 50 and 200… …the Cu/Au ratio does what it did all through 2021; decide already! Which means one of my favorite charts of the moment continues not to make its decision either. Oh, it’s coming. But it’s like watching paint dry on a day to day basis. For “best of breed” top … Continue reading Copper wobbles, Cu/Au ratio has no signal (yet)
[edit] Upper gap filled. Lower gap open. Hold immediate support or it’s going to get uncomfortable. My view of the Semi sector is that it is much less cyclically volatile and more interwoven into a much wider array of industries and end market applications than the ‘traditional’ and super volatile Semi sector, so dependent upon personal computing and some other areas related to computing . … Continue reading NFTRH+; Semi sector [w/ edit]
Junk bond ETF HYG is going bearish. This is not good signaling or any sort of positive divergence for the stock market. It is a flat out negative one, as the speculation the Fed instigated in 2020 continues to wane. If situations like this do not reverse or stabilize soon there could well be a liquidity event in the offing. I have been lightly speculating … Continue reading NFTRH+; Bad signaling for risk ‘on’
The TSX Venture index looks like a short setup, much like the US small caps did a few weeks ago before they broke down. CDNX lost support, bounced to test the breakdown and has held below what is now resistance. It is also near its lows in relation to the TSX index, which we have shown over time to track inflation expectations and by extension … Continue reading NFTRH+; This negative view for the speculative inflation trades continues
The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!
[edit] I did not note below that despite the hammering gold is taking, it is still in a short-term uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. So technically at least, the seasonal rally is still in effect. If it takes out 1780 on the downside (current: 1798) that ends the short-term trend. That is the current signaling. Not inflationary, not deflationary, but at least on … Continue reading NFTRH+; Goldilocks [w/ edit]
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
I wrote the title before the release and don’t know what the January FOMC statement will say. My guess? No policy change (hold today, hike anticipated in March) with maybe a couple sweet nothings inserted or previous phrases altered just a teeny to whisper a little sweet nothing in the market’s ear about how if inflation expectations were to drop too rapidly (they have been … Continue reading Economic Eggheads of the oval table speak…
Palladium, outstanding CoT and Seasonal After having previously reviewed the positive seasonal aspect for Palladium (along with other metals, see below), NFTRH 690 presented (by way of CoTbase) the following CoT situation, which was in a no-brainer, contrary bullish setup at the last reading. Palladium looks really good. Specs were way too long at the top and Commercials were very short. Today it is the … Continue reading Excellent Palladium CoT joined a positive seasonal average
