Our operating plan is for the summer cool down (mini or maxi) to be driven by the anti-market (USD) and its fellow rider, the Gold/Silver ratio (“metallic credit spread” indicating loss of liquidity & risk ‘off’ when rising). To this point, a rally in USD has been subject to the neckline of an inverted H&S pattern, which is a bullish pattern if the neckline is … Continue reading NFTRH; USD & Gold/Silver Ratio
Pring Inflation index recoils from target I have not looked at this chart for months, but it was created last year, maybe even a full year ago as we got on the inflation trades, in order to establish a target for one indicator of what most people did not believe was possible back then. That would be err, inflation. I dropped this chart in favor … Continue reading Pringo!
Copper price is breaking down from short-term resistance Copper has held below resistance at around 4.30 for weeks after initially breaking down from the SMA 50. It has been a personal mental grind waiting for the macro to follow through fully on the summer cool down (in the reflation) thesis we (NFTRH) have had going for the last few months with items like copper cling … Continue reading It’s not the end of the world, Copper/Reflation Bugs, but…
Volatility expressed, VIXY sold I am not a great bear and I am not necessarily bearish the market. What is going on now is the logical extension of what we anticipated months ago, a summer cool down in inflation expectations. Lately, it has come complete with Fed heads jawboning about inflation with Yellen doing the same in the side car. Long story short, I am … Continue reading Bye Bye Volatility
The screenshot of page 1 tells it all. Well, maybe not but it’s a cool picture. This week’s report drills in depth to the macro topics that I think are most important here and now. We – not the ranting inflationist down the street – anticipated the summer cool down along with the reasons that the Fed would want such a thing. Now we are … Continue reading NFTRH 664, out now
I say joyously because this was one of the biggest bands of my younger years and because Martin, the singer and the band’s one constant through the years, has recovered from a life threatening illness after working through a multitude of life challenges and issues. After I posted a KEXP performance by fellow Kiwi band the Bats last week a subscriber from New Zealand pinged … Continue reading The Chills (joyously) live on KEXP
Pretty please with sugar on top, let the markets correct Because this week I did the very thing that exposes my dark side by shorting leveraged mid-caps (MIDU) and this morning got long a VIX vehicle (VIXY) while it was still negative. Before that I shorted the Euro (EUO) and longed the USD (UUP), which are sort of the same thing, and raised a lot … Continue reading Macro may be falling into place
“Will stock market crash?” A Google trends query on that search term yields this graph along with an interest by region map. Boy they are mellow out there just east of the pacific northwest and down east just above my state (MA) filled with worry warts. No real sign of mass anxiety yet but of course that comes well after the herd should have taken … Continue reading “Will stock market crash?”
Would-be gold miner bounce stalling as inflationista bugs sell along with their base metals miners You see, to the inflationista bug – doped up on dogma – gold is silver is copper is tin is… you get the picture. These are the bugs who “buy metals!”, “buy resources!” to “protect yourself from inflation!” Copper and base metals miners are getting sold down as the Fed … Continue reading Gold miners still caught up in the ‘inflation trades’
Is that an inverted H&S in gold? I responded to someone’s tweet about gold with the monthly chart below, which we’ve been viewing in NFTRH updates as an alternate scenario. I decided to tweet it directly as well. I for one have not been bullish on gold/gold stocks beyond a bounce lately, but you know, open minds and all. Gold’s seasonality only adds to the … Continue reading Gold’s alternate scenario at a seasonal low
The more times support is tested, the weaker (they say) it becomes… BTCUSD is thus far locked below the down-trending SMA 50 and the neckline of the first bearish pattern we tracked in late winter and early spring. The daily chart is gently fading and may have another test of the green neckline upcoming. Should that fail the next support is the 2017 high, with … Continue reading Bitcoin eases back toward the neckline, Gold rising in BTC terms since April
US stock market breadth is fading The US stock market has bad breadth as participation thins out markedly. Below are a few examples. Equal weight SPX is fading headline SPX per this chart which we feature occasionally in NFTRH but update the status of most weeks. SPX new highs/lows is diverging the headline as well. Let’s also take a look at the thinning out going … Continue reading Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter?
The copper/gold ratio continues to be stalled where it was supposed to stall The global economic reflation instigated by balls out inflation (steroidal money printing and subsequent cost pushing) halted at a logical caution area as indicated by the Copper/Gold ratio. This not surprisingly came as the 30yr yield, which had risen under the pressure of the determined inflation operation, formed its right side shoulder. … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio dwells at the decision point
On July 8th we introduced an alternative (to the bearish S/T view) option for gold that involved a potential inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. Let’s update. First, a daily chart shows the metal having broken out of its downtrend channel for a second time after first breaking out and then failing. Gold is at a key point now below the converged SMA 50 and SMA … Continue reading NFTRH+; Updating Gold’s inverted H&S option