NFTRH; Back in Rising Yields Mode?

Assuming a bullish market, one of the key considerations about sector positioning is the state of long-term yields and their relationship to short-term yields. For example, segments that tend to be more positively correlated with rising yields are Materials, Industrials, Financials, some Commodities and even Semiconductors. These are very cyclical areas whereas big Tech and internet-based services are less cyclical, as are defensives like Healthcare … Continue reading NFTRH; Back in Rising Yields Mode?

US Stock Market Leadership

The leadership chain is intact. SOX/NDX has remained functional. NDX/SPX has regained functionality. SOX/SPX is making a new high. Per this chart, as noted on Sunday in NFTRH 622, “this is an intact leadership picture for the US stock market.” The last 2+ days have done nothing to alter that view. Indeed, they’ve enhanced it. Personally, I have wanted a better correction. But we may … Continue reading US Stock Market Leadership

NFTRH+; US Stock Market Technical Status Update

Why again do I not have the constitution to be a perma-bear? Dow counts 27805 reasons as it breaks through the EMA 20 and SMA 50. SPX has taken out the same two moving averages, which we have noted as key to keeping a correction scenario going. It is eyeballing a gap at the resistance of the lost February high. Take that out and then … Continue reading NFTRH+; US Stock Market Technical Status Update

NFTRH+; HUI Daily Chart Status

On 9/24 using the daily chart below we noted… “A simple chart showing HUI in lock down below former support, now resistance. It’s bouncing today but that means little until/unless Huey can take back 325 and hold above it.” And so today here is HUI 326. It’s not conclusive, but it’s doing what would be a first step to recovery in tentatively taking 325 in-day. … Continue reading NFTRH+; HUI Daily Chart Status

NFTRH+; an Update on ‘THE’ Ratio

Not often do I like to micro-manage indicators as if to give them more importance than they deserve. But this one is different. The Gold/SPX ratio continues to hold the rising SMA 200 on the daily chart. It’s a must for the positive gold sector view to continue. The weekly chart lends perspective, showing that the area of the SMA 200 above is also clear … Continue reading NFTRH+; an Update on ‘THE’ Ratio

NFTRH+; This Ratio Has Dropped to a Key Level (again)

The Gold/SPX ratio has dropped back to the 200 day moving average once again. I’ll remind you that a loss of the 200 day average and a lower low to the previous September low would put a significant ding in our bullish macro view for the gold sector. The SMA 200 is the major daily uptrend in this macro indicator. It is intact but testing … Continue reading NFTRH+; This Ratio Has Dropped to a Key Level (again)

NFTRH 622 Out Now

NFTRH 622 continues to manage corrections across most markets as USD finally bounced hard and the Gold/Silver ratio got in gear as well. Folks, this stuff is as it should be in order to kill some herds and provide opportunity for non herd members (i.e. those following signals, not bias or emotion). For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to … Continue reading NFTRH 622 Out Now

Gold, Silver & HUI Big Pictures

Gold, silver and the HUI Gold Bugs index are viewed here by their big picture monthly charts. In NFTRH we use mainly daily and weekly charts of these along with individual miners to better gauge the shorter-term pictures, which will advise on the end of the correction better than these more cumbersome monthlies that are great for keeping perspective amid the shorter-term noise. Our target … Continue reading Gold, Silver & HUI Big Pictures

indicators

Gold/Bond Ratios Merely Adjusting

In NFTRH we track Gold/Stocks consistently and Gold/Commodities and Gold/Currencies ratios fairly routinely. But we’ve not looked at gold’s ratios to bonds in a long while. I see Gold/Bonds as another confidence barometer, like with stocks only different. Gold/Stocks is a reflection of casino patrons’ willingness to speculate or lack thereof. I see Gold vs. sovereign Bonds more as a barometer to their CONfidence in … Continue reading Gold/Bond Ratios Merely Adjusting

Canaries at Odds

This article calls junk bonds a canary in a coal mine. Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an early warning to when investors might start taking flight from riskier assets altogether. I obviously see bearish junk as a bearish confirmation for the markets, but it’s not a canary. Canaries are/were put in coal … Continue reading Canaries at Odds