US Dollar

Per the NFTRH Trade Log last Thursday:

“I just took all profits on what were by far my largest positions, Euro short EUO.”

Why? Because the profits were there. Why? Because I went through a lot of grinding for that eventual profit on an indirect portfolio hedge. Why? Because it was a proxy for an expected bounce in the US dollar and USD is still bigger picture bearish. Why? Because see the featured image for this post above.

The bounce is not indicated to be over, but it did reach the first objective, which was 94.64, before turning back down. Now we are either going to merrily resume the interrupted inflation/reflation trades or take a new deflationary dip in the broad markets.

If you think Thing 2 is the play, you’d want to buy Uncle Buck in some form or another at the support I’ve drawn in the 93s. If you think Thing 1 is the play you can call Garth and Wayne and see if they want to hang out. It’d be excellent.

The constructive USD view came because of the wildly over-bearish sentiment profile (over-bullish Euro), the deeply oversold readings, and the RSI positive divergence at the low. A pullback in the short-term up-trending RSI to its supportive moving average could coincide with a test of the noted support level.

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But fundamentally the Fed and the sitting administration are antagonistic toward the world’s reserve currency, which serves as a counter-party to many of the global games. As we head toward the scariest election I have ever witnessed, consider that they are not making America great again. They are just going bananas. It’s a currency manipulation parlor trick. Great again, my a$$.

The only way to effectively and temporarily give the impression of “great again” is to devalue the currency.

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