Excerpted from the March 29th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 596, this segment was written before the segment on the Fed-Treasury-government ‘merger’ that threatens to turn the United States into a Banana Republic one day. Inflation would obviously be a big part of such a transition. Why Inflation? The simple answer is that is what they are doing, inflating. The slightly less … Continue reading Why Inflation?
They usually work. It’s just that sometimes you’ve got to wait a while for them. I sometimes go rummaging through the chart lists (today I did this after making an earlier post, a few trades, hitting the treadmill and not having any interesting hockey content to read about) to see what they are doing. Stocks, markets and of course macro indicator charts like this one … Continue reading The 30yr-5yr Yield Curve knew in advance…
We are humans. Well, it’s the internet so I should amend that. Most of us are humans. We humans have eyes, ears and a brain attached to them. We process information at varying speeds but on average even the slower among us process information much faster in real time than what is called for when laying out a long-term plan. The financial media bombard us … Continue reading Don’t try to (re) build Rome in a day
Excerpted from today’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 596. I may publish another segment on inflation that goes well with this one later in the week. The next segment on inflation was originally planned as the opening notes, but this new topic has rammed its way to the forefront on Sunday morning. It arrived in my in-box, I saw it at Twitter … Continue reading The Nationalization of the Financial System; Me wan’ go home
NFTRH 596 includes everything from a forward view on inflation, to the new Fed/Treasury/Government marriage that will only make it more intense when the current deflation scare is but a footnote to financial history and the next inflation becomes readily obvious. But for now, we do two things… manage the present and plan the future. Note to subscribers: I’ve sent the notification email from a … Continue reading NFTRH 596 Out Now
SPX monthly has put a long tail on its candle that had poked down below 2200. The best correction target is the 50% Fib at 2030 to the 2100 support shelf. But before that could happen (recall we’ve anticipated chop, grind and volatility as opposed to a nice, clean price recovery) the 38% Fib is back in play as support around 2350. Another note is … Continue reading NFTRH; SPX… where we are at
From the last update on Tuesday… Indeed, I wonder if that was not a solid A-B-C correction. But HUI needs to take out resistance and the moving averages in order to prove that case. Today it smashed through resistance, tested the moving averages and reversed. That was always going to happen even if the bullish daily A-B-C correction view proves out. It’s all very normal. … Continue reading NFTRH; HUI daily and weekly chart views to what’s ahead
An inter-market view of a few sectors and markets… vs. SPY. What is important here is not to look at these charts like a TA would look at a nominal chart, but instead to look at the trends per the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Gold Miners vs. SPY Gold vs. SPY Silver vs. SPY Healthcare vs. SPY Big Tech vs. SPY Semiconductor vs. … Continue reading vs. SPY
Seriously, I have come to love the city over the last few years of traveling back and forth on occasion as my daughter has lived and studied her musical crafts there. Today I finally got her out of there after convincing her it was best to spend some time in the boring country environment here in the woods well west of Boston. From its hockey … Continue reading I love New York [w/ edit]
My view is that we are going to exit the deflation scare in favor of an inflationary/stagflationary future. Monetary and Fiscal policy bombs say so. The Fed’s printing of funny munny and politicians’ deficit spending will likely bring about damaging inflation eventually, not the kinder, gentler type we’ve had over the last few decades. Silver would bottom and turn up nominally and vs. gold as … Continue reading NFTRH; Silver/Gold ratio, Copper, 3 charts of Silver & HUI
Just yesterday we noted that SPX had dinged the 2100s. Long ago my target for a real correction had been 2100-2200, more recently updated to 2030-2100. But that revision would be pending whether or not SPX puts a tail on the monthly candle and closes above the first Fib level. Much like silver is attempting to do with its 14 level, SPX is attempting to … Continue reading SPX monthly ‘unfinished business’ chart updated
[edit] A friend is concerned about Trump opening a door to a new stigmatization of the elderly among the red hats. That, like the green new deal, is something for later in my opinion. The elderly have earned their place in society and no virus should put any such thing even in question. And if a new fascism like that starts to form it would … Continue reading Trump and the economy [w/ edit]
Gold futures are up and silver futures are up bigger. So the Silver/Gold ratio is still playing ball tonight by keeping its bounce going. But nominal silver has work to do as well. It is on its horse and needs to keep riding. At 9:50 US Eastern time it was right on the magic 14 (monthly) resistance line. Here’s the daily chart. Silver weekly chart, … Continue reading Silver is at an absolutely critical juncture right now
[edit] Ha ha ha, a subscriber chimes in that in following my advice (and not my trades) he’s up 20% in 2020. Perfect! I made sure I took enough of 2019’s and early 2020’s profits in order to be able to withstand my dogged hold of a few remaining items, which I have been slooowly adding to. Mind you, Mark at IKN is a friend … Continue reading Clarification on a friend’s recommendation [w/ edit]
