Let's take a quick look at the state of bonds, yields and spreads. First, remember when we projected upside of 138 on TLT? Remember when they (momo freaks, people stampeding…
After noting 3 recent weak economic data points (ISM manufacturing, Jobs & ISM Services) we have had a couple of firm ones in Job Openings and Jobless Claims. Such is…
The Gold-Silver ratio and Uncle Buck usually ride together but not through the post-Brexit landscape. US stocks and Treasury bonds often go opposite each other, but not during the post-Brexit…
Yes, it's another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near…
TLT (long-term T bonds) and TIP-TLT ('inflation expectations gauge) are blowing off. One to the up, the other to the down. When the blow out comes the reversals in the…
There is Brexit hype over there, FOMC hype over here and poor payrolls, presidential election rancor and all sorts of other hype everywhere. But under the surface, whirring along, is…
Wacky title aside, with nominal bonds and TIP bonds each rising and the TIP/TLT ratio still dropping, the indication is of course declining inflation expectations (and a lurch toward risk…
This is actually potentially beneficial for USD (in the very short-term) and future gold mining fundamental trends alike. It is also a potentially good thing for a future 'inflation trade'…
We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.
The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.
But the good feelings of the last 1.5 months have been indicated as a counter-trend bounce to reset the unsustainable bearishness of January and February’s downside, although the bounce has come very close to the point where it could negate the bear trend. As yet, it has not.
Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue. It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.
So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.
[edit] Man, I am a typo making machine when I am in a hurry… :-(
A little over a week ago we had a subscriber update (now public) on TIP, TLT and some signals for the markets. Let’s update the charts from the update.
Nominal TLT and TIP continue with their “bullish slant” by the weekly view.
The ratio between them, an inflation expectations indicator, continues to be weak but I continue to favor nominal TIP for any long-term T bond exposure due to forward inflation expectations that I expect to whip up eventually. But this chart is indicative of the new downturn in commodities and another downturn in the ‘inflation trade’ we have expected. It was just a bounce after all. Weekly…
We have reviewed TIP and TLT nominally by weekly charts as they were a previous NFTRH+ double highlight on Treasury bond funds, inflation protected (TIP) and nominal (TLT). Each continues to have a bullish slant by the weeklies.
We have been on the bounce scenario and speaking as a bear on the intermediate trend, I say thank you Mr. Kuroda. Everything, including clear as day analysis on the…
A week ago, in anticipation of the risk 'off' impulse in the markets, we NFTRH+'d long-term Treasury bond fund TLT. Here's the original post, unlocked. We set parameters for buying…