Under the Surface, on FOMC Day

There is Brexit hype over there, FOMC hype over here and poor payrolls, presidential election rancor and all sorts of other hype everywhere.  But under the surface, whirring along, is the decline in inflation expectations toward what could be viewed as a double bottom…


…while TLT nears a measured target off of the bullish pattern.


We noted the kick off to each of these conditions back on June 2:

Inflation Expectations Sagging

That was a trade I guess, if one chose to trade it.  I did not buy TLT but I did trade it by taking profits on several of the ‘inflatables’.  Now I think that trade is ending and it will be time to at least begin preparing for the next inflationary phase.

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