NFTRH+; Growth/Value & Tech/Broad

After adding GOOGL this morning to go along with other items I consider somewhat negatively correlated to long-term yields (DVAX, TWST, ZM, META w/ MSFT on priority watch) and thus, inflation, I thought I’d put up an update about this rebalancing from an ‘inflation trade’ allocation (although commodity related NOG, MOS & NTR have also been added back recently) to more of a contrarian ‘Goldilocks/disinflation’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; Growth/Value & Tech/Broad

Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)

Market has been rotating back to growth from value and reflation-sensitive areas It was all about long-term interest rates and the beginnings of the at least temporary failure of the inflation/reflation trades. Over the last several weeks I’ve been rotating in anticipation (with the biggest rotation being into cash), holding some big Tech and a few growth stocks like ROKU. If you look hard enough … Continue reading Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)

A Sentiment Event for the Ages; NDX Edition

The men, women and machines that are driving this hysteria now were sitting in the corner sucking their thumbs in March. They were swearing off investing and a lot of them puked the market (I know people in personal life who sold out in the crash). It’s a cruel market and the choice for those patrons is to either not look at it and suffer … Continue reading A Sentiment Event for the Ages; NDX Edition

NDX: “Doom? What Doom?”

As we have noted since long before the COVID-19 crisis, Tech has been a firm leader. So too have general growth stocks been consistently leading so called* value stocks. Here is a monthly chart from NFTRH’s Market Internals segment telling a story of not only a long-term trend but even more importantly, an accelerated trend preceding and even more so during the 2020 crisis. The … Continue reading NDX: “Doom? What Doom?”

QQQ Bear Flag?

This is my largest single equity position. That’s the qualifier. It is bouncing as expected per our 60 minute charts reviewed each afternoon lately, but… Let me tell you what I don’t like about this daily chart. I don’t like the wedgey looking upward flag combined with the declining volume. I also don’t care for the down-turned (to a degree, anyway) SMA 50 below which … Continue reading QQQ Bear Flag?

Semi Wrong

That would be err… me. Semi wrong about the recent abdication of leadership by the Semiconductor sector. Yet AMAT and LRCX are still in something of a breakdown mode vs. the broader Semi sector. I tried to act on this by shorting equipment companies (against significantly heavier long positioning in tech and other market areas) but 2 of 3 times the shorts ended in failure. … Continue reading Semi Wrong

Still Watching the Semis and Market Leadership

We began our little exercise back in November, noting a dangerous MSM article pumping the views of a fund manager who promoted the great relative value the Semi Equipment stocks, like AMAT and LRCX in an over valued market. 2 days later AMAT, LRCX and the SOX itself cracked and eventually we projected a bounce. Last week we updated the bounce, which was still in … Continue reading Still Watching the Semis and Market Leadership