Stock Market

Stock Market, US

vs. SPY

I created the title and then had a flashback to Spy vs. Spy… :-)

spyvspy

Anyway, here are some daily charts of other items vs. SPY.  I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system, post-Goldilocks. Several of my long positions are in alignment with a potential ‘inflation trade’, including US manufacturing/exporters.  I still hold SPY short.  Ouch, but it’s more than fine; the 2016 out performers are seeing to that.

Here are relevant markets vs. SPY, beginning the EM’s, which we long ago noted were out performing.  EEM-SPY is doinking the SMA 200 for the first time today.

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April 13, 2016
Read more about the article Gold Sector: Macrocosm Updated
Precious Metals

Gold Sector: Macrocosm Updated

We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.

The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.

But the good feelings of the last 1.5 months have been indicated as a counter-trend bounce to reset the unsustainable bearishness of January and February’s downside, although the bounce has come very close to the point where it could negate the bear trend. As yet, it has not.

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April 8, 2016
Stock Market, US

Healthcare Almost to Target

Here's the XLV weekly chart again.  It's closer still to the top channel line. The daily view is kissing the SMA 200. I sold XLV but still hold my fair…

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April 6, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; A ‘what if?’ Exercise

Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue.  It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.

So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.

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April 6, 2016
Stock Market, US

Broad US Stock Market

Here is the multi-index weekly chart.  Most are above former resistance but... where are higher highs?  Show me higher highs, Jerry.

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April 6, 2016
Stock Market, US

Healthcare Sector Updated

A week ago we had an NFTRH update (now public) about the Healthcare sector.  With a nod to this morning's Market Psych 101 article, I was at a point of…

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April 1, 2016
Inflation & Deflation

At the Gateway to a New Phase

The market, despite weakening corporate profits and several other headwinds, has decided it liked what it heard from the Inflator in Chief yesterday as it has scored the game Janet Yellen 2, Hawks in Drag 1 and US dollar 0.  Is it a final score?  I am not sure how our hawkish transvestites can be taken seriously now.

But with a market running on the black boxes of a million quants, large and small, who knows what will happen the next time some clown decides to eat a microphone and dispense dissonance into a situation that Yellen seems very clear on; as my late friend Jonathan Auerbach once famously said (it was famous to me anyway) as we prepared for the post-2008 inflation phase, “it’s inflation all the way baby!”

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March 30, 2016
Stock Market, US

Bulls Still Wear the Dunce Cap

I assume everyone sees the topping pattern on the S&P 500.  It is the Dome (AKA Dunce Cap) we have been following since mid-2015.  The most bullish thing about this…

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March 29, 2016
Financial Markets / NFTRH

NFTRH 388 Out Now

NFTRH 388 was sent to subscribers earlier today.  A sensible plan seems to be coming into place about when to expect a more sustainable 'inflation trade' with the USD in…

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March 27, 2016
Read more about the article Macro Changes and Future Inflation Problems
Inflation & Deflation / Notable Public Posts

Macro Changes and Future Inflation Problems

Ever since beginning the ‘Macrosom‘ theme in July (and updating it here), NFTRH has been managing macro changes that would positively affect the gold sector, and quite possibly have a negative effect on broad stock markets.  Early on in the precious metals bear market we noted they were “in the mirror” and opposite the stock market, which on the post-2011 cycle has been the beneficiary of the Fed’s inflation, instilling confidence in their policies by conventional market participants (after all, the right assets were going up on this cycle).  In August, it appeared that the first real thrust in the direction of our macro theme kicked in as the stock market cracked.

The mechanism of this confidence racket, which allowed the promotion of inflation right through QE 3, has been a global deflationary force muting inflation signals and providing the US with a Goldilocks benefit as the US dollar strengthened.  To this day the economy continues to ‘service itself’.  Manufacturing and exports weakened under the regime of the strong USD, but those strong dollars bought a lot of services (which make up the vast majority of the economy) and consumer-related commodities.

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March 25, 2016
Stock Market, US

Dow & NDX Big Picture

I like browsing through old charts just to see what they are saying sometimes.  This one is from an NFTRH edition sometime back in 2015, when we were gauging the…

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March 24, 2016
Stock Market, US

Broad US Stock Market

One question; do you think these are bullish yet?  I have been compelled to turn the resistance lines green for tentative support.  But in my opinion, none of these items…

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March 23, 2016
NFTRH

NFTRH 387 Out Now

No time for a promo today.  A good report, and a lot of editorial commenting to boot (incl. the coolest old clown car you'll ever see!). Subscribe to NFTRH Premium…

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March 20, 2016
Stock Market, US

S&P 500 Simply Following its ‘Stimulus’

As corporate profits have decelerated over the last year the S&P 500 was left with little more than the monetary base, which had been ramped like crazy by post-2008 monetary…

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March 18, 2016