This market is anything but cut and dry. For instance, within this single chart we find some broader market indexes above their supportive moving averages and some below them. Lateral…
We have followed this chart for a long while in its various forms in NFTRH. Here is the simple view of the S&P 500 on top of what appears to…
What has been going on since mid-February is a burst of the 'inflation trade' as evidenced by silver's leadership in the precious metals sector. This opened the barn door for…
HUI has, barring a spectacular reversal, cleared the most recent target of 211 and with unrelenting strength. I have added RSI to the weekly chart we have used to plot the bull market signals of 211 (door opener), 251 and 261 (confirmers). RSI is getting over bought. The implication is that when a correction comes it is going to be an extended affair unlike the sideways to down consolidation and small bull flag pullbacks to date.
The US is in the midst of one (Bloomberg) It's another piece talking about this "most hated bull market of all time". So many bull wiseguys highlight this while soft…
The weekly EMA 20 has crossed over the EMA 50 and that is just a fact. The bulls not only took the bears' ball, but now they are chasing them…
In US pre-market silver is +2.47% and gold is +.72% at 7:00 Eastern. The silver-gold ratio closed like this yesterday, still above the daily SMA 200.
In pre-market there was some hype surrounding the Doha 'failure' to fix prices in oil. Failure? That's a victory for the free market and it turns out, those of us…
This week we abbreviated to a review of limit and/or trend change points in several markets, further discussion of inflation and what needs to be in place to call an…
My tolerance on a short position against small caps (via IWM) is shown here in this weekly chart. A break of the blue line and I'd probably move on. Among…
I created the title and then had a flashback to Spy vs. Spy… :-)
Anyway, here are some daily charts of other items vs. SPY. I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system, post-Goldilocks. Several of my long positions are in alignment with a potential ‘inflation trade’, including US manufacturing/exporters. I still hold SPY short. Ouch, but it’s more than fine; the 2016 out performers are seeing to that.
Here are relevant markets vs. SPY, beginning the EM’s, which we long ago noted were out performing. EEM-SPY is doinking the SMA 200 for the first time today.
We do in depth analysis on a weekly basis (and every day in-week) because there is no substitute for working to be right with the market’s evolving situation as opposed to making bias or ego stoked calls in hopes of being right.
The current situation has seen some calling ‘bullish’ on the stock market despite a still intact bear trend (noted repeatedly in NFTRH), people going bullish on commodities despite their “bounce only” (also noted repeatedly) status in the absence of real, market-based inflation signals (which I do think are coming soon) and global markets bouncing within bear trends of varying degrees.
But the good feelings of the last 1.5 months have been indicated as a counter-trend bounce to reset the unsustainable bearishness of January and February’s downside, although the bounce has come very close to the point where it could negate the bear trend. As yet, it has not.
Here's the XLV weekly chart again. It's closer still to the top channel line. The daily view is kissing the SMA 200. I sold XLV but still hold my fair…
Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue. It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.
So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.