Brexit!
In the past I have come up with article titles and terms like Cyprus, Cyprus... CYPRUS!!!, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Theater, Armageddon '08, Full Frontal Inflation '09 and who knows how…
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June 14, 2016
VIX Too Pumpy? Think Again…
We noted in NFTRH 399 that the VIX had made a big move on Friday but that it had rammed right up to the resistance at which bulls had owned…
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June 13, 2016
NFTRH Update; US Dollar & Market Update
A very simple update (it ended up being a little less simple, as usual) for a very simple situation. We have noted that an anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ bounce has been in progress. This has featured rising stocks, commodities and yes gold bugs, precious metals. It’s Bob Hoye’s “all one market” syndrome and it is predicated on perceptions of a dovish Fed, a weak US dollar and the momentum of speculators.
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June 10, 2016
Did Someone Say Inflation?
Well yes, we've been saying the word "inflation" a lot lately. Especially as part of the term "inflation trade". Post-Jobs "What does it mean? Well for one thing, the Fed…
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June 8, 2016
NFTRH; Detailed Market Update
I want to preface by repeating that we are all different investors and traders with different means, methods and objectives. NFTRH is not a service that tries to instruct about what is best for others because I do not know the detailed situations of others. So the mode is to interpret the markets as best as possible from a fundamental and technical view, and also show what I, a lowly individual market participant, am doing with my own funds per my own unique situation.
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June 7, 2016
US Indexes, Stripped of Noise
Sometimes my charts get noisy with all the moving averages, momentum indicators, volume, different time frames, inter-market ratios, etc. For this post, some very quiet monthly charts. Let's start with…
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June 3, 2016
NFTRH; Market Update
We looked at the precious metals miner ETFs on Tuesday and the status there has not changed. They are still below the EMA 12 & 20 but trying to hold the 50 day moving averages, which means they are still in short-term downtrends and intermediate up trends. For my part, I added a couple items on downside activity (explorer/developer PG.TO just above its MA 200 & royalty/streamer SLW at its MA 50s) but also still hold the DUST and JDST hedges, as noted in the NFTRH 397. This hedging, which sometimes proves unsatisfying could last hours or days. As noted in the previous update, the struggle to hold the MA 50s will decide whether it will have been a quick correction or something deeper.
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June 2, 2016
It Feels Like Inflation
Last night's post on the US stock market ended as follows: "As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant. This market is flipping…
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May 26, 2016
Bull
It's not rocket science. This market is going bullish. Whether it is a short and final push higher or a big break of consolidation, the market chose to break out…
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May 25, 2016
Dow Breaking Trend Line
The Dow had been the worst of the major US indexes on the short-term view (NDX led to the downside but formed a 'W' pattern as noted yesterday). Now the…
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May 25, 2016
NFTRH 396 Out Now
Okay, I'm pooped. No promo. :-( [edit] Well yes, there is a promo. It's from subscriber Joe F: "So fucking good." Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly…
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May 22, 2016
Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD?
This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395. I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title's…
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May 19, 2016
Gold, Silver, Stock Market
I could write a long, detailed post trying to encompass global stock markets (generally bearish), commodities (bounce very mature) and bonds (mixed views, depending upon the flavor) but that is…
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May 13, 2016
NFTRH; US Stock Market Technical Situation
Yesterday’s hard reversal of Tuesday’s bullish move was an unpleasant development for the bulls but this morning, plucky as ever, they are back at it trying to bull the market again (SPX +13.50, NDX +27.50, Dow +87).
Recall that we were using the EMA 20s (orange dotted line on SPX and blue lines on NDX and Dow) as a key for the short-term. On Tuesday SPX and Dow popped above the EMA 20 but the NDX stopped right at it. NDX is a leader.
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May 12, 2016
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