We have followed this chart for a long while in its various forms in NFTRH. Here is the simple view of the S&P 500 on top of what appears to be its rough inverse, 30yr Treasury yields divided by 5yr Treasury yields. Sure, the SPX Dome that this website and probably a half million others on the internet used to talk about is broken to the upside. So handily, we draw another one to illustrate the symmetry to the indicator below it. But really, with SPX above the green dotted line, the Dome is all gone.
So too, if I may scatter and de-focus the post a bit, is the weekly moving average ‘sell’ signal at least temporarily neutralized per this chart.
But then here is the 1st chart above blown up to a longer-term view. When 30’s rise in ratio to 5’s the market has come under pressure to mini or maxi degree at least in the beginning phases of yield pressures. So the questions I have now are a) will it be or not be different this time and b) has the downward pressure of an initial upturn in 30/5 already been absorbed by the market? After all, the market ground with an upward bias in 2012 as the 30/5 also ground upward.
Still, I find this chart ominous. It’s the same as the one directly above, presented a little differently. The 10 year yield in the middle panel illustrates how previous 30/5 upturns and SPX downturns have come with deflationary pressure, which recent (current?) inflation bounce activity aside, still appears to be dominant.
I don’t know, it’s just a food for thought post I guess. Sometimes that’s how they come out.
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