Doctor Copper questioning reflation?

The copper price is testing daily chart support It’s not just copper that is calling the inflation-fueled reflation view to task. Long-term yields and ‘inflation expectations’ gauges are as well. All this after the government’s pork barrel of spending budged my 60% lean inflationary to a mushy 60 to 70% lean. But the contrarian view is for the damn inflation to fail despite the ‘INFLATION!!!’ … Continue reading Doctor Copper questioning reflation?

Copper’s breakdown/not breakdown

Copper price nullifies daily chart breakdown Last Monday we noted that copper was intact on the bigger picture but breaking down on the daily chart. Then on Tuesday we asked whether the turnaround in long-term yields might have signaled an end to the summer reflationary cool down and resumption of the reflation trades, of which copper is a headline play. This morning the copper price … Continue reading Copper’s breakdown/not breakdown

Copper & Industrial Metals vs. Gold

The indication from the metals is cyclical, pro-reflation and inflationary You cannot look at this chart and claim that the backdrop is not still firmly cyclical as the reflation created out of the fear and disgust of the year ago period continues apace. Think what you will about our dear leaders the economic eggheads, but at this moment they are still winning, duh. Tune out … Continue reading Copper & Industrial Metals vs. Gold


Checking Doctor Copper’s Status

“Copper is bullish” (Captain Obvious) From Kitco, copper inventories continue to drain down and that is price-bullish (also Captain Obvious). This morning the Copper price is ticking a new high in its cyclical bull market as the global macro hangs on to its ‘reflation ON’ status. The cyclical bull was indicated when copper took out 3.35. A big picture view view shows a viable resistance … Continue reading Checking Doctor Copper’s Status

Meanwhile, the Inflationary Reflation Continues

Indicators of and markets sensitive to the reflation instigated by ongoing inflationary operations continue to trend upward Today, as job growth rebounds (if you can call this a rebound), we check in on a few of the indicators and markets leading the inflationary charge. There are lots of others. We had a halt just below 2% on the 30 year Treasury yield, as anticipated in … Continue reading Meanwhile, the Inflationary Reflation Continues

NFTRH; ‘Reflation Trade’ Indicators & Vehicles, Status

The current macro theme is an ongoing inflationary reflation that will one day meet its end and morph into another liquidation along the Continuum (caution about that is currently targeted at around 2.5%). For a review of what I mean by “inflationary reflation”  you can check out the NFTRH 606 excerpt located here. The current micro theme is a normal pullback in the reflationary stuff … Continue reading NFTRH; ‘Reflation Trade’ Indicators & Vehicles, Status

Pivotal Juncture for the Reflation Trades

RINF (inflation expectations) has sagged to its trend marker (SMA 50). As has TIP/TLT. While the heretofore inflation signaling yield curve has also eased a bit. The wild card here is that it can steepen due to deflationary pressure as well. KBE (banks)/SPY ratio is still on its rally, though pausing at the moment. The commodity patch driven by the oil wild card is blah. … Continue reading Pivotal Juncture for the Reflation Trades

NFTRH; Look Who’s Joining the Party

This morning the Silver/Gold ratio is ticking a new high. I have a shtick called the 3 Metallic Amigos, where Gold, Silver and Copper give different indications on the macro backdrop. Well, now we have 3 new Amigos as well and they would indicate positive, inflationary/reflationary macro if they go bullish. They are the TSX-V (JX, CDNX), Copper and the Silver/Gold ratio (SGR). We’ve been … Continue reading NFTRH; Look Who’s Joining the Party

Updating the Reflation Bounce

The president announced he is imposing tariffs on currency manipulators (which is a way of saying all nations with paper currency) and talked the USD down earlier, with FOMC due on December 11th. Anyway, Uncle Buck is off its perch today but we’ll see how that goes. It’s trending up and stuck between daily chart resistance and support, as has been the case all too … Continue reading Updating the Reflation Bounce

Q4 2019: Global Macro Inflation/Reflation Trade Gaining Steam by the Day

October came and went. It’s now November 5th with holiday (and Wall Street bonus) season directly ahead along with the 1 year anniversary of the Christmas Eve massacre in which the machines puked and reversed the market. This morning long-term yields are up, yield curve is up, inflation expectations are bouncing and stocks are up. Bonds are down and the risk ‘on’ backdrop is dragging … Continue reading Q4 2019: Global Macro Inflation/Reflation Trade Gaining Steam by the Day

Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon

Note the word bounce, which in TA means what it sounds like… a bounce within an existing trend. Note the trends here by the slopes of the moving averages. I own this one, the Industrial Metals Mining & Services ETF. Looks a lot like the situation in Lumber, eh? Nice bounces within downtrends. What would change the ‘bounce’ label? The July high is the objective. … Continue reading Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon