The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its ass in gear and get on the rate hike regimen it is now on. Evidently, it still is demanding. Quite demanding, actually. Yet the ETF that tries to represent inflation expectations is in full retreat … Continue reading What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?
The 3 month T-Bill yield is up while inflation expectations continue to moderate Despite the recent decline in inflation expectations by this marker (as noted in NFTRH 711)… The 3 month T-Bill yield (IRX, top panel), one of our guides that have compelled the Fed to fully tar and feather itself in its hawk costume, is up hard today while the inflation expectations tracker (RINF) … Continue reading T-Bill yield up, RINF down today
Junk-related credit spreads and inflation expectations remain tame and aloft, respectively Both of these indicators are intact to the inflation that the Fed created and by extension, the widespread speculation that the Fed also created and is trying to shove back in a box currently. As noted back December, the Fed is not directing markets but indicators like these are. It is not only status … Continue reading Two important macro indicators remain intact
The ‘inflation expectations’ ETF is bullish The daily chart of RINF is, as currently situated, bullish having held the major daily uptrend (SMA 200), the intermediate daily trend (SMA 50) and forming a sweet looking pattern. This as the macro quakes due to fears of liquidity problems. Hmmm… more to discuss this weekend. Now offering a 2 week free trial to the NFTRH Premium service … Continue reading Want to see a bullish chart?
TSX-V/TSX ratio continues to negatively diverge the reflation trades Back on June 21 we compared inflation expectations with the fading CDNX/TSX Ratio using this chart (updated here). Nearly 3 months later, while inflation expectations look poised to turn back up TSX-V/TSX continues to robo-trend down. Da ‘V’ is not an indicator in a vacuum, but its relationship to the senior Canadian TSX index has been … Continue reading A negative divergence to the inflationary reflation trades continues
In looking at the chart of the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF (RINF, top panel) I notice its similarity to the the TIP/IEF ratio (middle panel) and dis-similarity to the TIP/TLT ratio (bottom). So I dug further and went to the St. Louis Fed’s website and pulled the 10yr Breakeven inflation rate, which not surprisingly looks a lot like the first two items on the chart above. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Inflation Expectations
I don’t want this website to be a place where one guy puts out his views and expects readers to agree with everything or even assume that the source is right about most things.* I believe I am right about most things within my realm of market management, but there are a lot of smart people out there; people who know a lot more than … Continue reading “Gold and Inflation Expectations”
Give me an inflationary macro where we throw darts and all stupidly make big money. Give me a deflationary macro where we have to use strategy and specific themes in order to be the first to position in order to make money. But get this damn Goldilocks environment, where inflation is tame and the fully employed US consumer uses his strong dollars to drive up … Continue reading Goldilocks Threatened
There are crosscurrents in the futures this morning. The US dollar is up, commodities and stocks are down and gold and silver are making new highs and attempting new highs, respectively. Gold finally pops 1308… But I am not so much talking about the higher high to May, as I am about the higher high to January, 2015. Silver has more work to do, which … Continue reading Gold & Silver, Post-FOMC
This is pretty handy at the moment, I’d say. When there is “no inflation” (at least by gauges like this) that is the time that inflation can be promoted, eh? Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with … Continue reading Look Ma, No Inflation!
Gold vs. Silver and USD have reversed downward today. This would imply a whiff of an ‘inflation trade’ if it were to persist and lead to a break of the up trends for these 2 Horsemen. But the 3rd Horseman, who is adversarial to the first 2, the TIP-TLT ‘inflation expectations’ gauge, has not gotten the memo yet. Continue reading The 3rd Horseman