Give me an inflationary macro where we throw darts and all stupidly make big money.
Give me a deflationary macro where we have to use strategy and specific themes in order to be the first to position in order to make money.
But get this damn Goldilocks environment, where inflation is tame and the fully employed US consumer uses his strong dollars to drive up many US service sectors out of my face, will you?
For months now in NFTRH we have been watching these inflation gauges go sideways. Not too hot and not too cold. Just right for Goldilocks’ taste. But now her porridge is cooling off rapidly. She subsisted within the sideways trend after last year’s ‘too hot’ inflation signals tanked. But since then we’ve awaited an upside or downside breakout scenario, which would break the Goldilocks thing and assign us our strategic directions on how to go about this market.
Let’s see how this develops, but as of now it’s another signal popping up to tell us why the Fed is so dovish now and projected by Fed Funds futures traders to increasingly be that way in 2019 into 2020.
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