Our thesis has been that Brexit may have put the final (!) on deflation and the bear phase that had been in effect since late 2014. That view was held…
A funny thing happened on the journey through this week's sentiment analysis. First, the Semi sector, which as I recall we were among the few to be publicly bullish on,…
For those who don't watch this stuff as obsessively as I do, here's the June Semi.org b2b data. Oh no, b2b dropped and so did bookings! As an economic indicator…
[edit] Subscriber Joe advises that Hickey says the b2b is a lagging indicator. But I assume he means vs. Capex from the likes of Intel, etc. I am using b2b…
From BLS: Employment Situation Summary "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.…
The ISM RoB continues on our theme of inflationary growth, as first indicated in the Semiconductor Equipment sector while everyone was freaking out about the backward looking employment situation. Full…
I am prompted to write this article because TA's are starting to pick up on the Semiconductor index's bullishness and even the overwhelmingly bearish website, the Daily Reckoning is calling…
We have been talking about the reasons that the next phase in the markets could be an inflationary one…
This week with the 400th edition we take a little stroll down memory lane, from NFTRH's humble beginnings on 9/28/08 to today. Below is our nice little story but what…
[edit] Yikes... a blogger's worst nightmare. I had 'Dallas Fed' on the brain due to publishing a post by former Dallas Fed associate Danielle DiMartino Booth at Biiwii and mistakenly…
[edit] Please see a new post with more perspective on a would-be 'inflation trade' and its limitations. The following excerpt is the opening segment from this week's edition of Notes…
45 pages and not nearly as difficult to get through as that sounds. Things seem very clear to me about what is going on with the macro backdrop. The May…
Factory orders came in okay, joining a pretty good ISM (manufacturing) the other day while ISM (services) eased in May. Could we be seeing a phase change, where old fashioned…