Our thesis has been that Brexit may have put the final (!) on deflation and the bear phase that had been in effect since late 2014. That view was held through a couple soft jobs reports and into what is now the second strong one in a row. Our main Canary’s Canary was the Semi Equipment sector along with rising manufacturing cost inputs.
The thesis expands out to an inflationary view, which is why gold and silver can remain in a bull market despite the sound economy. It’s the Greenspan era blueprint, after all. Commodities will be very interesting going forward. But short-term interest rates need to be perceived as being “behind the curve” for an inflationary view to kick in.
Anyway, here’s the report from BLS and here are the usual services out front leading the charge.
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