Semi Optimistic

[edit]  Subscriber Joe advises that Hickey says the b2b is a lagging indicator.  But I assume he means vs. Capex from the likes of Intel, etc.  I am using b2b (and thus Capex) as a leading indicator on the economy.  He’s a technology geek; I am a markets and economy geek. 

I am playing a little game with myself.  As you may have guessed, I have a little chip on my shoulder after having been politely admonished by a now former subscriber who put the views of Fleckenstein, Felder and technology expert Fred Hickey in my face while taking exception to my bullish Semi equipment sector view.  Hickey especially, has all sorts of learned reasoning about why my stance is wrong.  The other two have all sorts of reasoning about why a bullish stock market view is wrong; and I generally like these two guys (never heard of Hickey before this).

I think it is so important now to keep in mind that people going by charts, quant data, cycles/analogs and even linear fundamentals in a vacuum, are to be filtered.  It is important to be looking at data (like the Semi b2b ramp up, manufacturer and consumer prices, etc.) and indicators (inter-market, of risk on/off, inflation/deflation, sentiment, etc.) along with charts.

I will ask anyone who knows, did Hickey talk about the Semi equipment book-to-bill trend with his subscribers and explain why it is bogus?  Did he just not discuss it?  Does he even know about it?  I would hope an expert would.  How on earth does he explain away the big pop in forward looking business while maintaining a bearish view of Semis, stocks and the economy?

What I see is the Semi equipment sector ramping on a going on 4 month trend…

b2b

I see manufacturing prices paid increasing, jobs bouncing back, silver making a big statement in relation to gold and thus, a cross reference of different data points saying ‘inflationary growth’ may be the next phase.  So people can bitch and moan about the Fed, BoJ and all the other manipulators.  But the markets are going to do what the sum of the data say.  Maybe it all falls apart tomorrow.  But today the bulls have the ball.

Anyway, SOX maintains its series of higher highs and higher lows.

sox

What’s more, the two Semi equipment companies highlighted in NFTRH+ and later publicly, are getting up to new highs.  AMAT daily…

amat.day

Sure AMAT is over bought, but if we are right it’s got the fundamentals in its back pocket.  Here’s the weekly, on the verge of new highs.

amat.wk

Meanwhile, LRCX is poking near the highs on the daily.

lrcx.day

And as such it’s activating this ridiculous pattern on the weekly with its upside target over 100.

lrcx.wk

But then, I am no Fred Hickey now am I?  I do however, think for myself at all times and I think in line with my work.  If my work changes, I change.  But for another day at least some expert opinions remain frustrated, whether they admit it or not.

Speaking of experts, per Tim Knight, media star Dennis Gartman has apparently capitulated on his short positions and that gives me, bullishly aligned as I am, the creeps.  So I’ll keep an open mind about everything.  Folks, there are no experts.  Not in this market.

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