NFTRH 713, out now

#713 is out and I’ve gotta run for one of a string of commitments lined up before me this summer. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right … Continue reading NFTRH 713, out now

Behold the sheer beauty of the Continuum

The long bond’s yield pierces the limiters We have had this very event on radar since we began projecting it as the Fed was inflicting the inflation upon the financial markets (to fulfill its goal of bailing out the ‘asset owner’ class) in Q1 2020. This will be a decision point. The decision will be between an inflation like we have not witnessed before (von … Continue reading Behold the sheer beauty of the Continuum

On plan to the Continuum’s message…

The 30yr bond yield Continuum… continues As 30 and 10yr Treasury bond yields hold and amp up their recoveries by this daily chart… …the big picture monthly ‘Continuum’ chart of the 30yr yield is bending its right side shoulder into shape as originally anticipated when we projected the summer cool down back in the spring. The implication is for a date with the (red) monthly … Continue reading On plan to the Continuum’s message…

30 Year Yield on a Key Test

A key test by one important indicator is taking place now. Back when we were gauging the potential for the reflation trades one aspect would have been for long-term yields to begin rising again out of the summer’s risk ‘off’ fear fest. Yields would travel upward along with investor sentiment out of the summer grind. Well, . The global macro reflation trades have bounced hard … Continue reading 30 Year Yield on a Key Test

Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX (and a Crack Up Boom?)

While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues… The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks… While the nominal 2 year yield does this, implying “ruh roh!”… This last chart is ugly, isn’t it? As I’ve banged you over the head about since Q4 2018, this chart is surely out front in the signals that the Fed takes … Continue reading Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX (and a Crack Up Boom?)

Amigos 1 & 2 Arrive, #3 Still Out There (as yield curve flattens)

The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month. Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well. The gaps are interesting … Continue reading Amigos 1 & 2 Arrive, #3 Still Out There (as yield curve flattens)

Wanna Get SOMA Them Bonds?

It is notable and a little funny how the followers of 3G (Gurus Gross & Gundlach) have gotten hammered here as the Fed makes its adjustments of US Treasury security holdings. For reference, recall Macro Tourist‘s highlight of Martingale Macro’s observations about the Fed’s SOMA days. Pink Tickets on QT Days We had been planning for a bounce in bonds since well before I was … Continue reading Wanna Get SOMA Them Bonds?

Treasury Yields: A Stroll Through Recent History

So how long ago did we begin seriously entertaining higher long-term Treasury yields? Well, per these posts, it was before Halloween that we noted the daily chart breakouts and began assigning macro meaning to the situation. I think the 3 Amigos took to their horses shortly thereafter. Treasury Yields: Here We Go, Folks (10.25.17) The Big Macro Play Ahead (10.27.17) The reason I post this … Continue reading Treasury Yields: A Stroll Through Recent History

continuum

The 30 Year Yield Continuum © & NFTRH 467 Out Now

This snippet from NFTRH 467 is an extension of the Bonds & Related Indicators segment that delivered some messages to me that I feel I have got to take seriously in a sort of ‘steady as she goes’ way. No over reactions. And now NFTRH subscribers have the information as well. It could be massively profound and then again, it could be nothing to get … Continue reading The 30 Year Yield Continuum © & NFTRH 467 Out Now

Yield View on Track; Uncle Buck to Follow?

Two ongoing themes in NFTRH of late have been for a rise in interest rates  and a significant bounce in USD (thus far). While I have had my challenges with this policy-stoked market just like anyone else, the Treasury bond market has been like child’s play for the last year. That is because bonds have reliably done what contrarian analysis said they should do. Herd … Continue reading Yield View on Track; Uncle Buck to Follow?