A key test by one important indicator is taking place now. Back when we were gauging the potential for the reflation trades one aspect would have been for long-term yields to begin rising again out of the summer’s risk ‘off’ fear fest. Yields would travel upward along with investor sentiment out of the summer grind. Well, .
The global macro reflation trades have bounced hard and the 30 year yield bounced from 1.9% to 2.4% before pulling back this month. If we used 2.2% as an important marker on the way up it’ll probably be one on the way down as well. Lose 2.2% and the reflation story weakens further. Our original goal was for a Q4 2019 bounce, possibly lasting into Q1 2020, after all.
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