NFTRH+; A Canary Weakens

A ‘for reference’ update to be filed in the ‘may be nothing, may be something’ category. My job is to try to find early potential signals but not to over react to them. We’ve long viewed the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials segments as a canary in a coal mine to economic cycles. The theory goes like this… Semi Equipment > Semi > Manufacturing > Broad … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Canary Weakens

Silver Futures

The silver bull (et) wants to break consolidation this morning and it wants to do it in the direction of the trend, which is up. Symmetrical Triangles are thought of as continuation patterns, so it makes sense. At the time of the crash low below important long-term support at 14 we speculated that this could be a shakeout marking an important low because that is … Continue reading Silver Futures fades to black for the rest of the week

I try hard to keep out of politics because when I talk about the reality TeeVee star in the White House (currently starring in a spectacular 4-day infomercial) I get feedback that is off topic to my interests, my very job. I should not instigate that. This website is the place of my business. If Biden/Harris win the election I’m sure I’ll get the same … Continue reading fades to black for the rest of the week

Yield Curve Control? This is Not Bernanke’s Yield Curve

Once upon a time there was a macro market pushing the limits of central bankers’ tolerance for inflation. Decisively, in stepped big brained Ben Bernanke (BBBB) to quash the outbreak with one masterful stroke of all-powerful market manipulation called Operation Twist. We’re going to “sanitize” inflation right out of the macro said BBBB. And so they did, or at least they kicked off the epic … Continue reading Yield Curve Control? This is Not Bernanke’s Yield Curve

NFTRH+; Market Internals [w/ correction]

[edit] see correction above the final chart. Thank you RD for catching this! Let’s get an in-week picture of the US stock market’s internals and couple unhealthy internal divergences, beginning with the one that has worked best to forecast recent corrections, the inverse of SPX and the VIX. As noted previously, this indicator has given signals about oncoming corrections when the VIX has risen while … Continue reading NFTRH+; Market Internals [w/ correction]

A Sector Ripe for Shorting? Not so Fast…

This is a time when charts are working well for bullish outcomes but for bearish ones? Not so much. Exhibit A is one in the remote work/communications patch, which was a favorite theme of mine during and coming out of the crash. More recently I was watching PLAN as a potential short per the red shaded zone. It looked disgusting, actually. I decided to leave … Continue reading A Sector Ripe for Shorting? Not so Fast…

The New Buffett Indicator in Gold

Warren Buffett buys a gold stock, the media bullhorn it far and wide and out come the worst of the bugs, taking the bait and spreading the word across the land. Schiff, Keiser and some guy I don’t know but with a familiar name. When these bugs are touting with sweet vindication their authoritative victory speeches, you run the other way, mentally if not functionally. … Continue reading The New Buffett Indicator in Gold