It is notable and a little funny how the followers of 3G (Gurus Gross & Gundlach) have gotten hammered here as the Fed makes its adjustments of US Treasury security holdings. For reference, recall Macro Tourist‘s highlight of Martingale Macro’s observations about the Fed’s SOMA days. Pink Tickets on QT Days We had been planning for a bounce in bonds since well before I was … Continue reading Wanna Get SOMA Them Bonds?
Some daily charts as shown in NFTRH’s Market Internals segment most weeks. World/US has broken down from a sideways trend. It’s neutral with a bearish bias. Europe/US is breaking down as well and is in downtrend. China (large caps)/US is breaking down but in a neutral trend with a slight upward bias (SMA 200 slopes up). Japan/US is neutral and nominal Nikkei is something we … Continue reading The World vs. SPY (SPX)
I’ve opened up this premium subscriber update posted yesterday as the market was dropping, the news cycle was ramming it home and the VIX was spiking 29%. We remained calm and collected because we had sound information on our side, not hysterics and cacophony. Check out the post for the S&P 500’s key short-term support. NFTRH; Stock Market On Message (high priority) The main points were … Continue reading Oh, the World Did Not End Yesterday?
My wife and I went to NYC a few weeks ago to hear this piece performed live by the New York Youth Symphony’s Firefly Quartet. Blew me away then and blows me away now. But then, I’ve always liked music that deviates from the norm. How she got the string quartet to sound this way I have no idea. Continue reading Amnesia by Izzy T
An alert subscribe reminded me that Thursday is Fed ‘SOMA’ day, which is a day that the Fed is due to sell another chunk of Treasury securities. Isn’t it neat how they are bidding T bonds up (in line with our short-term contrary view) as the Fed prepares to sell? Reference the post at Biiwii on May 16 in which Kevin Muir highlights Martingale Macro’s … Continue reading NFTRH; SOMA Enters the Equation (med. priority)
Per yesterday’s update… I’d like to review once again a daily chart showing the support parameter to the ‘top-test’ scenario. The reason we should be aware of support is because complacency has already returned to the markets and also because if the rest of the plan is anywhere near on target, the next major move would be down, not up even if SPX does test … Continue reading NFTRH; Stock Market On Message (high priority)
Citron Research is a noted short seller. Basically, the guy (Andrew Left) hates everything. Sometimes he’s right and other times he’s either wrong or a given stock he shorts just does not care about the bearish case and goes up anyway. I have never shorted anything he has put the bear on but I was first alerted to the long-term bullish case for BB by … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Post-Citron Look at ROKU (low priority)
It was just a little over a week ago (May 20) that NFTRH 500 presented a case for caution on the rising bond yields tout that was vigorously in play across the financial media. Here is an excerpt from the Bond Market Sentiment segment presented at the time. From this public post: I want to make clear that I am not trying to predict anything. … Continue reading About Those Bond Yields
I’d like to review once again a daily chart showing the support parameter to the ‘top-test’ scenario. The reason we should be aware of support is because complacency has already returned to the markets and also because if the rest of the plan is anywhere near on target, the next major move would be down, not up even if SPX does test the January high … Continue reading NFTRH; Key Support Parameter to the ‘M’ Top-Test Scenario (med. priority)
To my dad (Korea), Grampy (WWII) and Uncle Ray (Vietnam), along with all the other vets and loved ones for us to remember, a Memorial day moment of silence. NFTRH 501 was sent out a little while ago. Peace. Continue reading Happy Memorial Day, NFTRH 501 Out Now
I’ll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with too many inter-market ratios, overly technical language or cute metaphors like the 3 Amigos (although it is notable that Amigo #2 is stopping exactly as we’d forecast, as you’ll see in the Bonds segment below). … Continue reading Gold, US Stocks and Bonds
An end of week look at various sectors vs. SPY; i.e. the current status of their relative trends to the broad market. Financials have broken down a bit on the daily. Who’s surprised? Bueller? If you read NFTRH you’re not. Energy is taking a hit. Who’s surprised? Beuller? If you read NFTRH you’re not. Okay, enough with the Bueller shtick. Healthcare remains in a solid … Continue reading US Sectors ‘vs. SPY’
So how is the mainstream financial media feeling about the big bear market in Treasury bonds? Are they standing their ground and remaining on the tout? They’ve got the 6-Gs * on their side after all. That would be Gurus Gross & Gundlach Going Ga Ga. They fed us the tout long enough to put all the believers (AKA the herd) on the wrong side … Continue reading Bond Bear Market: Gurus Gross & Gundlach Still Going Ga Ga?