Wanna Get SOMA Them Bonds?

It is notable and a little funny how the followers of 3G (Gurus Gross & Gundlach) have gotten hammered here as the Fed makes its adjustments of US Treasury security holdings. For reference, recall Macro Tourist‘s highlight of Martingale Macro’s observations about the Fed’s SOMA days. Pink Tickets on QT Days We had been planning for a bounce in bonds since well before I was … Continue reading Wanna Get SOMA Them Bonds?

Oh, the World Did Not End Yesterday?

I’ve opened up this premium subscriber update posted yesterday as the market was dropping, the news cycle was ramming it home and the VIX was spiking 29%. We remained calm and collected because we had sound information on our side, not hysterics and cacophony. Check out the post for the S&P 500’s key short-term support. NFTRH; Stock Market On Message (high priority) The main points were … Continue reading Oh, the World Did Not End Yesterday?

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NFTRH; SOMA Enters the Equation (med. priority)

An alert subscribe reminded me that Thursday is Fed ‘SOMA’ day, which is a day that the Fed is due to sell another chunk of Treasury securities. Isn’t it neat how they are bidding T bonds up (in line with our short-term contrary view) as the Fed prepares to sell? Reference the post at Biiwii on May 16 in which Kevin Muir highlights Martingale Macro’s … Continue reading NFTRH; SOMA Enters the Equation (med. priority)

alice

NFTRH; Stock Market On Message (high priority)

Per yesterday’s update… I’d like to review once again a daily chart showing the support parameter to the ‘top-test’ scenario. The reason we should be aware of support is because complacency has already returned to the markets and also because if the rest of the plan is anywhere near on target, the next major move would be down, not up even if SPX does test … Continue reading NFTRH; Stock Market On Message (high priority)

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NFTRH+; A Post-Citron Look at ROKU (low priority)

Citron Research is a noted short seller. Basically, the guy (Andrew Left) hates everything. Sometimes he’s right and other times he’s either wrong or a given stock he shorts just does not care about the bearish case and goes up anyway. I have never shorted anything he has put the bear on but I was first alerted to the long-term bullish case for BB by … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Post-Citron Look at ROKU (low priority)

alice

NFTRH; Key Support Parameter to the ‘M’ Top-Test Scenario (med. priority)

I’d like to review once again a daily chart showing the support parameter to the ‘top-test’ scenario. The reason we should be aware of support is because complacency has already returned to the markets and also because if the rest of the plan is anywhere near on target, the next major move would be down, not up even if SPX does test the January high … Continue reading NFTRH; Key Support Parameter to the ‘M’ Top-Test Scenario (med. priority)

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nftrh.com & biiwii.com Updated Privacy Policy & ToS

Effective today, May 26, 2018 we have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. The “service” is nftrh.com, biiwii.com and the Notes From the Rabbit Hole premium service. While we do not collect any personally identifiable information other than your voluntary submission of a valid email address and a name (or identifier of your choice) for the purpose of delivering public posts and/or premium … Continue reading nftrh.com & biiwii.com Updated Privacy Policy & ToS

Gold, US Stocks and Bonds

I’ll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with too many inter-market ratios, overly technical language or cute metaphors like the 3 Amigos (although it is notable that Amigo #2 is stopping exactly as we’d forecast, as you’ll see in the Bonds segment below). … Continue reading Gold, US Stocks and Bonds

Bond Bear Market: Gurus Gross & Gundlach Still Going Ga Ga?

So how is the mainstream financial media feeling about the big bear market in Treasury bonds? Are they standing their ground and remaining on the tout? They’ve got the 6-Gs * on their side after all. That would be Gurus Gross & Gundlach Going Ga Ga. They fed us the tout long enough to put all the believers (AKA the herd) on the wrong side … Continue reading Bond Bear Market: Gurus Gross & Gundlach Still Going Ga Ga?