So how is the mainstream financial media feeling about the big bear market in Treasury bonds? Are they standing their ground and remaining on the tout? They’ve got the 6-Gs * on their side after all. That would be Gurus Gross & Gundlach Going Ga Ga. They fed us the tout long enough to put all the believers (AKA the herd) on the wrong side of the macro once again, at least for a short-term move. At most for a big macro mistake.
So NFTRH subscribers had the view in real time on Sunday and similar views as needed all along the way. Public readers, if they chose to download the free NFTRH 500 here had the view yesterday. The view included this ongoing 2018 divergence in the Financials to long-term yields. The chart is updated to today’s activity.
I want to make clear that I am not trying to predict anything. I am simply trying not to have people (myself included) running like stupid lemmings (do lemmings run, waddle or put themselves in motion in some other way?) over a media-obscured cliff.
So I’ll just keep saying til I am blue in the face that 30 year yields have not broken out and our Continuum ™ has not yet had its backbone broken. Will that change? Maybe. Probably. But it has not changed. Now the media soft shoe away from this subject over to Trump/China, Trump/N. Korea and other flavors of the day. They’ll probably return to this play when it is time to scare everybody about a precipitous decline in inflation expectations and thus, yields.
It gets aggravating reporting like this from Contrary Central, but somebody’s got to do it. I realize that the herds tend to pay attention to easy sound bite information, but the markets feast on simple analysis and the simple herds following it. Many people are intelligent, but they are linear. They deduce forward expectations based on logical conclusions to widely accepted conventions, and that my friends is a problem.
So to put it in highly technical terms, this shit ain’t easy. Don’t try to make it so.
* A new buzz phrase hot off the presses.
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