The World vs. SPY (SPX)

Some daily charts as shown in NFTRH’s Market Internals segment most weeks.

World/US has broken down from a sideways trend. It’s neutral with a bearish bias.

Europe/US is breaking down as well and is in downtrend.

China (large caps)/US is breaking down but in a neutral trend with a slight upward bias (SMA 200 slopes up).

Japan/US is neutral and nominal Nikkei is something we are keeping an eye on using long-term charts.

Russia/US bear flags after getting smashed on sanctions. The trend is neutral.

EM/US has been hammered by the strong US dollar and the predictable fading of the inflation trades.

LatAm/US is similar.

Canada/US is in an uptrend from March but still in a downtrend longer-term.

Aussie/US is similar.

India/US is completely neutral.

As a side note, we also use the ratio of Canada’s highly speculative ‘resources’ heavy TSX-V vs. Canada’s TSX to gauge inflationary animal spirits, along with the Baltic Dry shipping price index to gauge the global inflation trade.

CDNX/TSX has been negatively diverging the inflation trades for all of 2018.

BDI aborted its rise a few weeks ago and that put us more acutely on alert for a failure of the inflation trade, in line with the recent failure in bond yields, weakness in commodities and global stocks. The uptrend from early 2016 is not dead but folks, this bears a close watch.

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