The screenshot tells some of what’s in the report but fails to mention the heaping helping of precious metals and commodity/resource stocks also included. NFTRH 702, doing its job of ‘top-downing’ the macro in a quality manner, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and … Continue reading NFTRH 702, out now
And it’s been mad bullish since Q4. Last year we had bearish projections for ACWX down to support, which did not hold, down to the gap fill (which did) and down to support at 39, which did not register. ACWX is my blunt global (ex-US) long position among more focused longs across the globe. But what it needs to get going vs. the USS Good … Continue reading It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
Some daily charts as shown in NFTRH’s Market Internals segment most weeks. World/US has broken down from a sideways trend. It’s neutral with a bearish bias. Europe/US is breaking down as well and is in downtrend. China (large caps)/US is breaking down but in a neutral trend with a slight upward bias (SMA 200 slopes up). Japan/US is neutral and nominal Nikkei is something we … Continue reading The World vs. SPY (SPX)
US Related Ratios Most items are daily charts, except for the first one, which is a long-term view of growth vs. value stocks. this is a robo trend that is still beneficial to risk ‘on’. The ratio of the banks to SPY is still suspect. At some point this ratio and the 10yr yield should reconnect. As already noted, I got rid of KRE on … Continue reading US & Global Ratio Charts of Interest
Here’s an update of the ratios of some global markets to the S&P 500. Euro 50 maintains key support. I went long euro hedged Germany a couple days ago due to an ongoing positive view of the US dollar (for a rally) and by extension, negative Euro view. In some work we’ve done in NFTRH we reviewed how on the big picture Germany has out … Continue reading ‘vs. SPY’ (and SPX)… Global Markets
Just another in a continuum of reports that have been in line with a macro theme seeing a loss of momentum in the US stock market and potential bottoming in the gold sector in 2015 and the establishment of new intermediate trends in 2016. NFTRH 384 does its job well and puts a lot of definition (and conclusion) on the current market bounce and the … Continue reading NFTRH 384 Out Now
From 2012 to 2014 we had robo-market, grinding upward as hedge funds, diversified asset allocaters, stock pickers and yours truly under performed a simple ‘set it and forget it’ (by buying the S&P 500) mindset. Then came last year’s trendless topping situation when the majority of stocks declined but the S&P 500 hung around, keeping passive SPY holders still relatively comfy in their resolve. Now … Continue reading NFTRH 379 Out Now
US Stocks Anecdotally and one by one, I see more and more sources out there getting bullish with the market’s advance. We are hearing about ‘the cloud’ and the internet in general in glowing terms seemingly in justification of the recent blast upward in Alphabet/Google, Amazon and Microsoft. Funny how we don’t hear as much anymore about the wonders of biotechnology. Promotions don’t resonate when … Continue reading NFTRH; Multi-Market (US & Global Stocks, Precious Metals) Notes and Observations; FOMC Week
From the email to subscribers that accompanied NFTRH 361: “The Indicators segment beats us all to a pulp talking about yield spreads, but I find more and more that this work should not be easy or readily packaged into sound bites. It just doesn’t work that way unless you are promoting an orthodoxy or an agenda.” That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. NFTRH … Continue reading NFTRH 361 Out Now
The plan as best my logical mind could foresee it was for a potential Monday (Margin Monday?) swoosh down with a bounce toward broken support soon to follow. But this swoosh down would not have brought indexes so close to the October lows just yet.
Below are some pictures of developing bear markets using weekly charts of iShares ETF’s. Some items are getting hit with the China stick, others with the Commodities stick and others with both. Regardless, they are getting hit with an ugly stick.
Here is the note from the email to subscribers that accompanied the full report… “I thought is was time to bulk up a bit to a 30+ page report this week. We review some of the key indicators and try to clearly define the status of US and global stocks, precious metals, commodities, currencies and even interest rates. In fact, I think US long-term interest … Continue reading NFTRH 346 Out Now
This headline says it all. Playing its assertion straight, we acknowledge that what was a bubble in asset market supporting policy could morph into a bubble and blow off (i.e. mania) in stocks.
This week NFTRH moves further from the lunatic fringe and into conventional market analysis with lots of talk about relative global stock valuations, using P/E ratios and currency movements as the talking points. We also break down the latest Semiconductor Book-to-Bill and illustrate why the precious metals are still not ready. Also, there is a sentiment issue cropping up in US stock markets, even as … Continue reading NFTRH 331 Out Now