Reference the original update from February 18, Targeting XLU to 50. Well, XLU closed today at 49.31, close enough for government work. So consider the target in. I will probably sell it tomorrow.
Here is the chart from the original update.
[edit] It appears there was some confusion by at least one reader. This post is not about the gold CoT or stockcharts.com showing something wrong with the CoT. It is…
Just posting to try to get the media settings right on the new site format. While we're at it, let's note that SPX is now at the top of our…
So FOMC rolls over on Uncle Buck, secure in the knowledge that it is playing with the house’s money for now. USD could drop a long way before anyone would get overly concerned about it. So in standing down, they have managed to play their own game of global Whack-a-Mole with the currency while continuing to have credibility (waning though it is) vs. their counterparts.
It will be interesting now to see if inflation signals start to percolate. I have remained cautious on the ‘inflation trade’, taking it as a bounce and little more. But if these clowns keep it up we are going to have a genuine inflation effects bonanza on our hands down the road. Here are a couple of things to watch for signals.
Commodities vs. the stock market
TIP vs. TLT…
Not only was there not a policy surprise – you know, in the face of recent commodity strength and those embedded services costs throughout the economy – but the Fed did not even talk tough, which I thought they might do. Maybe Yellen will wobble and speak out of both sides of her mouth at the press conference.
Here is the USD ETF flopping on the non-event.
Time to whip through this text and then start hitting buttons! Or not.
Release Date: March 16, 2016
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
With all due disclaimers about FOMC week and gold’s bearish CoT structure, we note the following gold miner pullbacks on daily charts. With reference to the minor support level of 19 noted in an update on GDX yesterday (HUI 160-165) and the possibility that short-term support could be found there…
NGD hit its equivalent support at around 3.40.
[edit] Ha ha ha, MarketWatch has substituted this headline for the one linked lower on the page, re-writing the whole damned article but keeping the link. Goofy. Maybe a couple of suits actually read this website, eh? Hey guys (and ladies), you know I just have fun with this stuff. Many NFTRH subscribers are said “suits” and I respect the hell out of them too. ;-)
3D Systems’ stock downgraded after ‘excessive’ rally
In a recent white paper, however, Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney predicted that the tide would start to change in 2016 as new industrial applications for the technology were uncovered.
“Similar to other disruptive innovations, 3D printing experienced a period of hype ‘before its time’ and has gone through a period of restructuring,” said Keeney. “While 2015 was a turbulent year for 3D-printing companies and their stocks, the long-term prospects are intact and profound.”
Well Tasha, maybe investors in the right companies can make a buck in the right companies, but industrial applications are not going to keep up with competition and cost pressures. It’ll be great for buyers of the technology, but not for investors in most of these companies.
***Original post follows***
On February 25, 2014 with DDD stock price at $76/share I, a former manufacturing guy, wrote this article…
Mohamed El-Erian gives a good review of the recent history of Central Bankers' descent down the rabbit hole of unconventional monetary policies. A calm, rational man well worth a listen…
Look folks, I realize that the last month has been fun for everybody with stocks and commodities bottoming and joining the bounce party. Reproducing the Multi-asset chart from NFTRH 386 once again, we see that gold led the whole thing by a couple of months and as of this morning’s pre-market post was pretty much still in line. Well, a $15 shave today and it’s looking more suspect.
Not so fast folks. Per an NFTRH update this morning GDX is not yet indicated to be correcting and I sold my DUST positions (sorry, I did not make a…
I just got the tragic news from a long-time subscriber about his son, a young boxer who has sustained a major brain injury while pursuing his dreams. If you click…
Normally I want to try to avoid updates about what I am doing with personal trading, especially during emotional, hype-filled weeks like FOMC week. But with the gold sector so in the spotlight lately and with my stance (about the risk of a correction) I assume well known, I wanted to update you on a move I am making this morning.