Monthly Archives: March 2016

Gold

Where is Gold Headed?

Where is gold headed?  Kitco fills us in…

So, has Kitco sentiment suddenly become a good positively correlated indicator on gold bullishness or is it still a good contrary one?  I am curious.

“This week, Kitco’s online survey received 1,085 votes, of which 829, or 77%, were in the bullish camp for next week. The remaining 175 participants, or 16%, say they are bearish, while the other 81, or 7%, say they are neutral. Votes tallied for this survey start from Wednesday morning until Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.”

Bullish Gold Calls Post-ECB, Ahead of Fed

kitco

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March 14, 2016
NFTRH

NFTRH 386 Out Now

#386 slims down to a focused 22 pages from #385's bulbous 49 pages.  There is no need for more volume because all plans are intact, markets are within existing parameters…

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March 13, 2016
market sentiment

Risk is Low You Say?

I am seeing more and more analysis reporting things like 'my proprietary indicators have gone positive' or 'market risk has now cleared according to my indicators' and so on and…

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March 11, 2016
Stock Market

‘Bounce Longs’ Updated

I thought the pattern was sneaky bullish and that is why I held BSX as I sold the others last week.  Today it boinks the 50 day moving averages.

bsxAs noted earlier in the week, MSCC was bought back at support after being sold just below target.  So far, so good although also uninspiring as yet.

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March 11, 2016
Financial Markets

Gold, Stocks and the Miners

One is the star of the year so far, grinding higher in what could be the launch phase of a new bull market as confidence wanes in the face of NIRP and other desperate global policy actions, and the realization that this disgraceful policy designed to spur speculation and asset price appreciation is all policy makers have got left in their bags of tricks.  The endgame is a bag with a hole in it; a monetary black hole.

The other grinds on in what could be the last significant hope replenishing bounce before new downside is explored.  Various US and global indexes are already in bear markets but casino patrons are trained to look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow as “the stock market” and these have not yet gone ‘bear’.  If the current bear-trend bounce fails however, that confirmation would be coming promptly.

The comments above are verified by the charts of gold vs. the S&P 500 and the Euro STOXX 50.  The bullish move and current consolidation are representative of all major stock markets.  This is a trend change in gold vs. stocks (joining gold vs. commodities, which turned up long ago).

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March 11, 2016
alice
Stock Market

An Outside Day…

Markets flew around all over the place today.  Precious metals down in pre, stocks up.  Stocks down post-Draghi, PM's up.  I remain positioned for balance in the miners (reestablishing some…

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March 10, 2016
alice
Stock Market

SPX, Mind Your Gap

I have allowed for the S&P 500 to rise to 2030 (bounce target: 2000-2030) before starting to even think about a revision of the ongoing intermediate bearish analysis.  Today's post-Draghi…

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March 10, 2016
nftrh plus
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; SSRI ‘Look Ahead’

Silver Standard got bonked on its recent acquisition of Claude Resources, but according to ‘FL’, who long-time subscribers may remember as being an NFTRH subscriber who was also a trusted fundamental mining analyst, the deal could have similarities to the Kirkland Lake/St. Andrews deal that took place earlier this year.  You may recall that KGI.TO dropped hard after the deal was announced.  It has since gone vertical.

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March 10, 2016
alice
Monetary Policy

The Draghi Down the Rabbit Hole

It is beyond me how conventional market participants can continue to play this game without having already completely lost confidence in the Central Bankers of the developed world, save for…

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March 10, 2016
alice, nftrh
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Gold Sector

Today we had the 2nd down day in a row until a reversal took hold.  As noted at the site I got lucky and covered the short against NUGT before this happened.  It was due to the old ‘don’t be greedy’ code and lots of unpleasant experience.  This after adding GDX yesterday, as noted in an earlier post.  I still think it would be for the best if GDX eventually works its way down to 16.50 to 17 (HUI 140) and the rolling MACD may imply this.  But there is a small support shelf here and if it holds there could yet be a new short-term high.  We’ll just have to wait and see what the market thinks.

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March 9, 2016
alice, nftrh
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; EEM/SPY Ratio Begs a Re-Think

As you may know, I have been bearish the Emerging Markets due to the big picture monthly chart breakdown by the MSCI EM index and iShares ETF.  But in pulling an EEM/SPY chart I found this bottomy looking thing…

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March 9, 2016
alice
Gold Stocks

Spitting Out the NUGT

Our little Nugat theme is all done now because I no longer like the taste of being leveraged short the miners.  I am taking +15% on the trade and moving…

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March 9, 2016
alice
Commodities

Oil & Copper Are Trend Down

There is a lot of hype regenerating in the commodity/resources/hard assets patch.  'Core CPI is elevating and the Fed is behind the curve!' goes the pitch.  Well maybe, but the…

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March 9, 2016