Callum: Investors All-In; Good Luck to Them

We are operating to an SPX target that is well higher; 3000+. That has been the case ever since SPX broke out of the red box shown here. Before that 3000+ was the alternate. Now it’s the feature. However, the depressed VIX in the lower panel above is just one (lower priority) indicator of risk. So what’s new over at Biiwii? There are Hindenburgs floating … Continue reading Callum: Investors All-In; Good Luck to Them

Stocks, Bonds and Gold; Snapshot of a Shifting Macro

Over the last year we transitioned from the stock market angst of 2015 to the bullish breakout of 2016.  For NFTRH, the real proof in the pudding was the ramp up in the cyclical Semiconductor sector’s Equipment sub-segment (Applied Materials, Lam Research and the like).  Specifically, we tracked a trend in Equipment orders and projected a bullish Semi sector a year ago.  The logical extension … Continue reading Stocks, Bonds and Gold; Snapshot of a Shifting Macro

alice

NFTRH; In-Day Snapshots of Market Risk and Gold Sector Funda

Gold vs. SPX (GLD-SPY) is breaking to new highs today. It is not a coincidence that the above chart looks a lot like Treasury bond fund TLT, as they are both indicators of risk ‘off’.  Amazing, isn’t it? Here is another, risk ‘off’ TLT (L/T Treasury) vs. risk ‘on’ HYG (Junk).  While nominal HYG has not broken down, this ratio does show risk creeping ‘off’. … Continue reading NFTRH; In-Day Snapshots of Market Risk and Gold Sector Funda

alice, nftrh

NFTRH; Market Divergences

Now that we are all giddy and bulled up (with SPX nearly touching the 2060 resistance zone), how about we review some more underpinnings that are less than stellar (joining the fading participation noted in this morning’s update). Junk bonds are not keeping up. Junk vs. Investment Grade and Treasury are not keeping up. Small Caps are not keeping up. And to top it all … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Divergences

4%

If the monthly chart of the COMP is to be believed, 4% is the ‘reward’ side of the risk/reward equation in tech stocks.  COMP could gobble that up in 3 days.

comp

Bulls have surely won.  The market has gone much higher than I for one thought it would when I got bullish on its prospects in late 2012.  Much higher; but then I am not a bubble chasing momo.  I am a conservative player with a negative view of the mechanics that have produced this bubble.  Still, there is no use denying its reality.

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How [They] Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the [Market]

How I [they] Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb [Market]  paraphrasing Stanley Kubrick’s great cold war/nuclear paranoia film Dr. Strangelove (1964).

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The USA thrived during a 20th century rife with war, famine and depression.  This was a wealthy country however, founded on principles of self-reliance and valuing  thrift, saving and honest work for an honest return.  Add in unparalleled productivity and economically at least, the positives more than outpaced the negatives.

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Momentum: By Definition it is Hard to Stop

Excerpted from NFTRH 250 (August 4, 2013) Momentum: the quantity of motion of a moving body, measured as a product of its mass and velocity. the impetus and driving force gained by the development of a process or course of events. People trying to manage trend changes are by definition fighting momentum, which feeds on an established trend with powerful force.  A premium service I … Continue reading Momentum: By Definition it is Hard to Stop

Risk is OFF

Risk is OFF [ed: ‘Risk Off’ might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators – including a sentiment extreme exactly opposite to the contrarian bullish extreme of 1 year ago – flashed warning signals weeks ago.  From NFTRH 244’s opening segment… I don’t know how to put it any more clearly than that.  … Continue reading Risk is OFF

NFTRH Interim Update 3.14.13, Market Update

Precious Metals (Negative) Bearish Engulfing candles aplenty yesterday (‘BE’ is only a very short-term bearish candle, with implications over the next 1-3 days at most) Lack of bullish follow-through from Tuesday Metals and stocks in downtrends and no sign of bottom confirmation * Precious Metals (Positive… well okay, less negative) MACD and RSI still look generally constructive on many charts Volume was not compelling yesterday … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.14.13, Market Update